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The crisis is always averted, except when it isn't.

There was a flood of new capital into systematic funds after the 2007-9 crisis. Most of this has now left.. in disgust. Now that everyone's figured out that CTA funds can't make money, they are actually poised to make HUGE money.

C'mon, prizes mean nothing. Some rich old dude wants to feel good by giving his money away, that's all. Adolf Hitler was runner up in the 1939 Nobel peace prize award :)

An economist points out a problem, usually an obvious one, and is hailed a genius. An engineer solves a problem, usually a complex one, and is outsourced to a low wage economy. :(

The "buy the dips" crowd always push their luck too far..

A number of indicators, both fundamental and technical, suggest the market is due for a major correction: CAPE > 20 NYSE margin leverage (largest reported since 2007) Monaco yacht show (largest turnover since 2007) Pre 2008 collapse trend channel recently reentered QE-to-infinity rally...

Left and right have been on the same side for quite a few decades now. They are bought by the same lobbyists. What differs is the marketing.

Sure, amateurs were getting excited, but the theme was slightly different. Note how each of the recent bubbles has been driven by a subtly different meme: 2000: It's a new economy. The internet means old valuations don't apply anymore. 2007: They're not making land anymore! Real estate can...

<I>"until doctors start trading stocks again in between patients and the shoeshine boy is trading stocks on his iWatch..."</I> That didn't happen in 2007

So the stock market has trebled all thanks to QE. Now when QE is stopped, it will go up EVEN MORE. The world has gone mad. This is probably the most dangerous bubble in history.

Basically the stock market can go straight up without any pullback for about 5 years or so. That's the historical limit since stock markets began roughly three hundred years ago.

Could this be systemised and/or backtested in any way, or do you think it was simply a case of the time being right for this strategy?

How "small" a fortune?

So now your taxi driver won't just tell you which stocks are hot, he'll recommend a good algorithm to trade them. Nice progress from 1999.

It would have been far cheaper for Macklowe hubby just to divorce her. Business my arse.

The market will keep going up until it doesn't. And then it will be <b>nasty</b>.

I prefer to manage risk rather than gamble.

No, but I am indirectly 'short the market' (i.e. long vol) by being long a systematic trend following system. I was just focussing on AMZN as a historically frothy stock.

Lots of admiration for Bezos, huh. Let's see what you're all saying when the price of AMZN returns to 2002 levels :)

Interesting. We are certainly in an uncommon situation. The market has been shrugging off a crescendo of bad news since the lows 4 1/2 years ago. A rally of this size and velocity has not been seen since the second world war. Is it really different this time? We are now in the autumn Sept/Oct...