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Trading is about 2 things: 1. Figuring out what needs to be done to give you a long term edge 2. Having the psychological discipline to stick to it That's it. Whether or not you're passionate and/or want to make money is largely irrelevant.

*IF* the US defaults, Obama will be blamed, simply due to the prevailing social mood right now. The president is always the focus of blame, whoever he may be.

Sure, but as with the stock market, a prolonged drawdown leads to investors running for the exit. Exactly the same human psychology is at work whether it's stocks or a mechanical trading system. I personally believe that trendfollowing is the best strategy that exists, and certainly the only...

2007 and 2008 were great years for TF. Has it suddenly become crowded in the last couple of years? Surely the 'dumb' money is piling into the stock market now after its most rapid doubling in history? Right now mutual funds' cash allocations are at an all time low. Buy the dips, anyone? :)...

Trend following is an entirely reactive strategy. If any market starts to move in either direction, a TF system will jump on hoping that it will turn into a huge move. If it doesn't, the system will get out on a stop loss. TF makes money from big directional moves and goes through loss making...

They wouldn't have had such huge positions to unwind if they hadn't kept doubling up on their losers. Destroyed by the gambler's ruin.

You mean March 2010? :) Sorry no you meant 1st March.. I read it as March 2001.

Ah, so it's become "once in a generation" now? That's an improvement on once in 10 000 years :) In fact these things happen every 5-10 years.. After the first blowup, who exactly gave JM more $ to trade?

I've always wondered, out of all the hopefuls expecting to take $10K to $100K/$500K/$1m in 6 months/weeks/days, how many actually had to max out their credit cards to get the 10K? :)

Fat lot of good praying will do.. how about swinging an AXE at public sector pay and benefits? Literally slashing it by 1/3..

Do we have any recent data on Seykota's fund performance? Over the last 15 years, perhaps? Or is he more of a singer/songwriter these days? ;-)

If you do what he says you'll go long at the exact market top all the time :) e.g. 2000, 2008, now..

The only mechanical systems that work long term are those that don't work 'consistently', i.e. don't make money every month. In fact the best ones will be subject to lengthy loss making periods. Anything that purports to produce high, steady returns is a fraud, e.g. Madoff Securities. It...

A more direct answer might be that more money increases your options in life. You may well have all your needs and wants covered at your present wealth/income level, but more money will enable you to help other people, donate to political causes you believe in and give to charity. These are all...

None of the Main Street Americans who believe a depression is likely know much about economics or markets, BUT this view is indicative of a downturn in social mood. What does a downturn in mood signify directly after the most rapid doubling of the stock market in history?

Yeah, I find that really funny. If all you had done over the last 80 years is put money into the market after every down quarter, you would have outperformed every equity fund by miles. Yet try advertising that strategy for your fund and see how many investors you get. Nope, you need to have...

I guess buying the dips and hanging on for the dividends long term might have worked. I'm curious to know how many funds or individuals did this. My guess is wild swings between "Yes, it's a recovery!" and "We're shafted!" would have prevented them from executing any rational strategy. I...

1) Yes, that wasn't lost on me! 2) The issue with mutual fund managers is that none of them dare to be in cash if their peers are in stocks - the risk of 'missing out' scares them to death, whereas if they're all wrong, there's company for their misery 3) Er, go buy Japanese stocks? I've...

The average proportion of assets held in cash across the mutual funds is at an all time low right now. It's the smart money that's getting out.

If the market is in a bad mood it will blame falls on the end of QE, if good, rises will be attributed to some of your claims above. The reality of what QE *actually* achieves is plain for all to see: sod all. After 20 odd rounds of QE in Japan, the stock market is 75% (yes, SEVENTY-FIVE...