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It appears the writer is confusing "earnings" with "earnings growth" in that sentence. At current PEs, a decline in earnings growth is more or less priced in - not an actual decline in earnings.

Either the recession is a myth or these analyst estimates are even more useless than usual. It's very difficult to estimate next 24 months of earnings. One rule of thumb you can try is take TTM PE and multiply by 1.5. If that's a number you're comfortable with on a fundamentals basis - go for...

That isn't even theoretically possible. Back to your original claim - Japan has been and continues to be proof positive that your statement is incorrect. If you would like to reword your statement, you are of course free to do so.

Considering that the world is about to completely revamp its handling of currencies and of US debt, it is a safe bet that NOBODY knows where oil or any other commodity will be in "3-5 years".

Yes - either rangebound or not rangebound is a very good bet as it covers all possibilities. Unfortunately there's not much edge in it. That long post can be boiled to a simple statement: market is going to move a bunch in both directions. And you owe me a beer for saving you a trip to yet...

People facing margin calls at that price.

This is CLEARLY grossly inaccurate. You don't have to look any further back than this morning to see a major economy spending nearly 20 years in an unsuccessful attempt to generate even moderate inflation - never mind "hyperinflation". Second-tier economies inflate and explode. Major...

Res ipsa loquitor. :) The other issue is that demand for long-dated USD Treasuries appears to have weakened considerably. Based on the G20 communique from today, this would appear to be..."non accidental".

It's a meaningless statement. Money is fungible - Treasury auction proceeds are used on a first-come first-served basis.

In a nutshell, that's what the world just said to the US. USD hegemony is dead - all they're discussing now is the funeral arrangements.

Risk Management Immediate Actions by March 31, 2009 * Regulators should develop enhanced guidance to strengthen banks' risk management practices, in line with international best practices, and should encourage financial firms to reexamine their internal controls and implement strengthened...

Action Plan to Implement Principles for Reform This Action Plan sets forth a comprehensive work plan to implement the five agreed principles for reform. Our finance ministers will work to ensure that the taskings set forth in this Action Plan are fully and vigorously implemented. They are...

Tasking of Ministers and Experts 10. We are committed to taking rapid action to implement these principles. We instruct our Finance Ministers, as coordinated by their 2009 G-20 leadership (Brazil, UK, Republic of Korea), to initiate processes and a timeline to do so. An initial list of...

Declaration of the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy 1. We, the Leaders of the Group of Twenty, held an initial meeting in Washington on November 15, 2008, amid serious challenges to the world economy and financial markets. We are determined to enhance our cooperation and work...

I take it you are unaware that Treasury runs auctions AT LEAST once a week. http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions/auctions.pdf

If the world returns to a gold standard, then gold will be confiscated at whatever price the state decides to "buy" it at. And you can bet it won't be $5300/oz or whatever other fantastical number pops into Mr. Larry's head. Leaders with armies at their backs don't pay retail...

The necessity of funding US debts with non-US "participation" makes that extremely difficult. But if you want to think outside the box on what might happen... There is only one significant member of the G20 without a freely-traded currency. That member also happens to hold massive amounts of...

Nobody cares. His underlying point was fairly accurate and nitpicking isn't going to further the conversation or anyone's understanding.

You're highlighting the problem. Foreign holdings of US Treasuries are ~25% - as foreign holdings are at historical highs this means foreign participation in *current* Treasure auctions is considerably higher than 25%. This also doesn't take into account all the agency debt which has become...

That doesn't work when you run massive weekly Treasury auctions that *require* foreign participation to keep the federal gov't solvent.