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Hmm. Are there many times when there is a run up in price without 2 points of "noise" in the meantime to stop you out? Part of the reason I like to trade long term is it rules out the noise. When I was trying to scalp back in the day, even if I got the direction right (50/50) I would get...

lol @ your relevent username :D Who cares if price has plotted price action you didn't have before? Can you use that info to predict future price? I can't. Sure R turns to S sometimes, but it also doesn't a lot of the time, too. The ONLY way I can even imagine averging up would work...

:eek:

Where in this thread did I say to do this on individual stocks to to double down every two days? Adding to your position would be done mathmatically, not based on time.

There will never be a huge loss with proper sizing and entries. And I already stated I don't care about having drawdown for extended periods of time. When you're averaging up, how do you know when to exit? How do you know when price will stop going up? You don't. So how do you know when...

Averaging up raises your average cost, and a smaller move against you turns your gain into a loss.

I don't know what QE means so I probably wouldn't tell you that. I assume SPY won't go down indefinitely. I wouldn't average down on an individual stock.

Basically yeah. No. Remember, neither I (nor seemingly anyone else) can predict direction. Reversing your position assumes that price is going to continue going against you. But I have no way of predicting if or when price will reverse and for how long, so reversing position is "trend...

I've heard of people doing that kind of thing before, like they'll play red in roulette, but they'll wait for a string of a certain number of blacks in a row before they begin, thinking that somehow the odds are more on their side after this. Or people who average down in trading, but instead...

The prize is making money if you can successfully predict where the market will go.

You won't blow up if you make the scale wide enough. It's mathmatically impossible. But the down side is you may sit on an open position for years waiting for it to go back up.

Gamblers fallacy.

All you millionaires with predictive powers, fib voodoo, EW magic, or whatever you do, open this chart, draw with the paint tool in MSPaint where you think price will go over the next few months, and then upload the chart in your reply. We'll revisit in a few months and see who was right...

Can you share how you arrived at those numbers? How are you coming up with these %s and profit targets?

I've heard of that before. But I would imagine you can run into issues if your target profit of futures trades is less than previous trades. Probably works better where risk/reward is the same on every trade. It bets on the fact that you won't have a string of x number of losers in a row.

What?

Martingale is a system of betting where you double your bet after each loss and then the eventual win will get you back to what you originally had +1 unit. It's used to be red/black in Roulette. It has three problems in roulette: 1) The ball can land on green 2) You can experience a...

I know. I already explained why averaging down doesn't work when people do it within too tight of a range. I gave an example for both futures and forex. As mentioned, I have no idea which direction the market is going to go in. I don't know when a "comet" is starting. I don't know how...

Knowing ahead of time how the market is going to behave will help. 14 period will work fantastic in some conditions and will cause you to lose your money in others.

what criteria do you RTM guys use to determine when to cut your losses? When do you say "oh crap this is a legit trend and not just noise that will revert"?