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see attached demark daily countdown. feeders already gave a false short into the prior countdown... will it repeat?

going to buy an october feeder 114/112 put spread.

and live cattle is in count 10. approaching 13 for the short

HA. found how to run it in bloomberg. according to this we are in day 5 of corn and sugar is still in a long phase.

traderaaa, i'm quite interested in following up on the Demark countdown. Back when I used to trade S&P's and bonds etc we used to do "day counts" to ascertain cycle bottoms and tops. Can you expand? Second, how do I run those indicators ? I only have an acct with IB and Man futures and can...

call spreads in wheat, not so cheap tho. agreed that crappy crop conditions a better driver in wheat than rosy conditions in corn.

long 260/300 dec corn call spread. 7.25 cents

looks like feeders now plus 2 for the august position and fats the same. on another note, oh so very tempted to buy a bull call spread on corn. question is: have fundamentals changed to the point where we will get 160-170 yields and ballooning ending stocks to quench demand ? seems weather...

so the pureplay , to play this fundamental aberration where feeders are too expensive (as evidenced by low placements) but perhaps the demand side is improving ( grilling season, perception of finally opening up export markets again, better than expected marketings etc) is to : short feeders...

With lean hogs correcting on Friday I would be more inclined to think LC or feeders could follow some sort of topping fashion. Seemed that COF was bullish, confirming packer profits, and lower desire of ranchers to keep animals for feed due to drought concerns and continued losses. Seems cash...

I think we dip below 500 on: USD strength Continued liquidation mode in risk assets e.g. emerging markets / us equities Higher rates Only 9% of net longs reduced. I want to buy the metal, but think we have more blood ahead.

looks like cattle on feed bullish?

So graphing the spread (feeder butterfly AUG/OCT/JAN) i see it clocking in at -4 or so. The range seems to be -7 to + 9. Sure buy it to the low of the range and sell the butterfly at the high of the range; but understanding WHY this spread (purchasing the fly) works well in bearish...

Expand on the butterfly idea...

would seem that structurally , live cattle is a cheaper market to buy puts in because of contango. december 80/78 bear spreads for 28 pts

and yes, i'm biased to buy some bear put spreads on cattle. just trying to figure out what the best spread is. still, i want to have an edge in my theory that prices are too high. aside from that, i'm just opinion building.

why do feeders exhibit backwardation while live cattle exhibits contango?

ah, mistaken identity. it's a hedge fund and I thought you were someone else. at any rate, though I agree techs point to a long trade in corn I'm very skeptical of getting long into the Jun 30th USDA report. I think they'll adjust acreage higher and you'll have a horrid gap down opening...

is that you on bloomberg?

brevan howard?