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Here's a chart of the rate move i mentioned above: <a href="http://tinypic.com" target="_blank"><img src="http://i32.tinypic.com/244bo1j.jpg" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic"></a>

Fed cut of 1 or 125... The only thing they will be concerned about in that meeting is restarting some kind of lending activity. Which means steepening the yield curve. And, oh by the way...THE FED FOLLOWS SHORT TERM RATE MOVEMENTS WHEN THEY ARE EXTREME... Just a heads up for all those...

- The first process is clearly already underway. And boy do they want inflation, Badly! But it won't matter how much printing goes on...no lenders/no borrowers...and, in fact… - The second process is also already underway. Just not in US dollar terms. Global deflation set in with...

A different theory: There are two trends that are part of the same phenomenon right now: Intrinsically valuable assets (like oil and most commodities), and short-term treasuries. In each case, the run in prices is quite simply about asset allocation in the unlikely event of a credit...

OK, I'll take the other side of that one. 1. Don't forget that the debt supercycle of the past two decades has been accompanied by changes so powerful that it's becoming difficult to even relate to how you lived your daily life, accomplished little tasks, and set your goals just ten years...

So, given all of the above, why then do I reject your ultimate conclusion: Because information liquidity is the most defining distinction between the inability, in the 1930's, to recover and recapitalize faith and constructive economic behavior, and our present capacity. During that...

To SouthAmerica: i have a feeling that most people find it difficult to relate to your conclusions because they simply cannot conceive of the paradigm shift implied in the process between Here and There. My own sense is that we will not see the kind of persistent economic paralysis that...

Well, you're essentially implying that demand from the f market is drawing on supplies in y and z, but y is better postioned to ship to f, enough so that the yA market is pricing yz,4 + spread beyond shipping costs. This means the play for local industrial consumers of yA to hedge their costs by...

No doubt about your first statement. But the net change is not everything. I see a market that will build an extradinary amount of short interest this week...and then see a big spike as it gets flushed right back out. A lot of people won't be able to rationalize the move. But if we get a...

Despite all the negatives assoc. with the split-up of these monolines, the markets are going to get a big bid. The reason is very simple: The big institutions who underwrite the muni market have been deleveraging everything else in anticipation of a bond rating downgrade...which would have...

We have a contact in the VIX pit in Chicago. I brought up the very odd behavior of the VIX lately, suggesting it seemed to be 'broken'. He said he isn't sure what's going on, but that something isn't right. So I told him a pet theory of mine: My theory is, since the VIX pit has become highly...

Hell yeah assuming we can reinflate convincingly, we haven't even had the 'fleece the public' wave yet. going to be a ton of marketing by paper profits and private equity...and 40% of S&P profits are derived from foreign markets at this point anyways...should be an easy sell

Right....but may be mitigated by the ratios. Not at extremes. At all. Middle of the range. So, maybe it can get thumped afterall. Besides, I like being short when I feel nauseous about my exposure.

For the dude who suggested a causal relationship whereby rising crude prices cause the dollar to be weakened: Crude is priced in dollars (ie, the correlation you observed works in the other direction). And, the dollar didn't react that much because there is deep interest in seeing it...

I'm talking about trading. But not planning on daytrading this week, so just working with open swings right now... I'm sitting short tech, short s. Korea, short regional banks, long ag eq (MOO), long gold...all plays entered between 12/26 and 1/7. Thinking about opening up long brics on...

Oh...I'm in. pretty deep in a few ways and into the money from Monday morn, and feel like a few of these could turn into big plays...so I really don't want to get shaken like a punk or trim out of a real move...I just can feel my resolve waver when I think about how full the bus may be...

Its amazing how clear the bearish picture adds up at this point. Unfortunately, it's too clear. The American Association of Individual Investors survey data is the most consistently proven contrarian survey data over the past two decades. When they report extreme bearishness, you're at some...

Here's the weekly/long term

Here's the recent one to the downside:

5 up looks to be in on the weekly, and now a first motive move down, FWIW