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  1. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    242.50 short BA
  2. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Looking through C2's supported brokers, TW isn't on there. This means that if I were to use C2, I would have to manually input orders via the simulator rather than my real orders automatically being inputted. This would cause may problems, including time delay, slippage, inefficiency, and...
  3. stockpredictor

    Bill Ackman - road to the first mil

    Buffett was a leading beneficiary in the bank bailouts. Without big brother to help him, BRK would be crippled from multiple bankruptcies. A cheat, liar, and conman is he.
  4. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Good question. It's very simple. Let's say an ATM (at-the-money) option which expires that day is worth ~$500 at the beginning of the day. In has 0 intrinsic value, because it is not ITM. Half the day goes by and half the value decays (Pricing dynamics don't work like that, but you get the...
  5. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    And now towards the end of the day, we can see that price still being flat, both the long and short position have decayed tremendously, leaving little extrinsic value.
  6. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    And now, a few hours later with price flat, we can see the decay effect (theta) on option values. The good thing about it is that even if the price has some move up or down, it still ends up in profit. It works most of the time, and an account gain of percent or two per trade adds up. The...
  7. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    One strat I use to sell premium is the 0-1 day DTEs on the S&P, which are available every day of the trading week. Going for straddles most of the time. I like to see divergence in tech and Dow, in general. If one goes up and the other down, that helps imply S&P stays flat. These decay very...
  8. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Ok I made a collective account, but because it tracks performance merricks for me. There's a trial period so I'll see how that goes, and we'll go from there.
  9. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Chart as shown
  10. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Out for a loss at 50.35
  11. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    49.16 short UAL here
  12. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    I no understand. Also, I'm not a kid, I'm an infantile baby. In ten years, I'll be a kid.
  13. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    I did a bit more reading on C2. The main dealbreaker for me is that it's a subscription model rather than % of profit. The performance of the top strats there are only like 200-300% a year gains. Looking at the numbers, the top priced subscription is $595/mo, with most around $150-$200/mo. I...
  14. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    I hadn't made a spreadsheet to track my trades in the past, so this is a learning and improvement experience for me. I'm technically monetizing my skill by making money. I made ~200% for family so far. Do you mean like a collective2 thing? I don't really know how to go about it. To be honest...
  15. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Because I typically hold from 0-2 days, a time held column probably won't matter; I think just max drawdown column is ok? I can add max drawdown on the trades thus far later tonight or tomorrow, as the intraday charts I have set up extend that far. There were a few trades that had a decently...
  16. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Chart as attached
  17. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Closed here at 84.45, larger intraday move than I expected.
  18. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    83.10 long JD. Will probably hold for a day or two.
  19. stockpredictor

    What's rules do you follow to keep the discipline in check?

    If your system can allow it, set an alert at around where you would like to enter the trade. Then, trade based purely on alerts. No alert means no trading. Thus, you'll only be able to trade 'correct' setups. Another is a mindset trick. Let's say you lost money and want to revenge trade. Rather...
  20. stockpredictor

    Prediction Based Trading

    Testing another format:
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