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    The Rise and Fall of Mechanical Trading Systems

    And why would someone post a mechanical system that really had an edge in the FX markets. Practically infinitely scalable. I doubt any posted edges work.
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    The Rise and Fall of Mechanical Trading Systems

    All trading is mechanical in nature. The difference is that discretionary traders can't usually tell you how to program their strategy. This is due to several factors. First off, most don't have enough experience in computer logic and programming to be able. The second and most substantial...
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    2011-12 Forecast

    So how long would the markets and the broader economy have to be doing well to get enthusiasm on the long side? I don't think there has been enough yet for the general public to get on board, but how long do you think that takes? The countries mood can shift drastically very quickly. Maybe the...
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    how does the USA compete with this?

    There will be work to do in the conversion stage that is not only for the highly educated. Also the service industry will become the home of most of them in the long run. The new "gold collar" workers. People who didn't go to college, but have almost no expenses and an excess of money even...
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    how does the USA compete with this?

    The system that is winning is highly mechanized production with the guidance of highly educated workers. In the past employees were valued for their labor, but agriculture and manufacturing does not require as much of that labor anymore. In the future employees will be valuable because of their...
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    Smart Money is Long

    My opinion is that when you start to see bonds become less attractive equities will really roar. Profits are up, forecasts are good. In my opinion, smart money is going to be flowing out of bonds and into equities very soon. The average investor will be late to the game, but they will come off...
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    2011-12 Forecast

    I'll take that bet. Whats the wager?
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    poor class..

    I was thinking something far more trashy. That guy although tackily dressed and overweight was amazingly talented. I was pleasantly surprised by the clip.
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    how does the USA compete with this?

    That is China's past. Our way of doing things is China's future. Highly educated and efficient employees. There are no manufacturing lines anymore. All new manufacturing will be replacing labor extensively. This will be true in all countries not just the United States. Industrial growth and...
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    USD's next move, please vote

    I think that there will be a lot of liquidity and so price will chop around this zone for a while. I play the different support and resistance throughout the zone and try to ride a trade to a break out when the energy looks there. My timing is just a guess really. It could break out at any point...
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    2011-12 Forecast

    I also think you are going to see some hot real estate markets. They will be mostly in urban areas that have a more consistent demand. New grads are moving to these locals and will most likely not return to the suburbs in the numbers they once did. Tools such as zillow will make the market more...
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    USD's next move, please vote

    I think the EUR/USD will be range bound in the 1.30 to 1.34/36 level for a bit. Next week or so.
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    2011-12 Forecast

    This belief is in line with what this article is promoting. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-12/recession-lasting-until-2018-worth-exploring-commentary-by-william-pesek.html The history and future of Japan is the reason we are trying QE2. We know their strategy doesn't work and we...
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    China sees inflation jump to 5.1%, a 28-month high

    It looks like China is going to look at fighting inflation by lowering the velocity of money before it touches money supply.
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    "This is not 1999. This is 2010 -- it's different."

    I think all those companies are going to be more important and powerful as web 2.0 comes online. We are going to be shifting bandwidth from a large percentage being hardwired computers to other platforms. Google is getting into some growing fields. Google TV and its dealings with Verizon are...
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    "This is not 1999. This is 2010 -- it's different."

    Groupon is a risky buy. Its an all or nothing bet. Google was interested in it because they felt their is a small risk people will start going there for a coupon before they go anywhere. Making it the most profitable search engine. It needs to work on technology to ease the coupon process if it...
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    2011-12 Forecast

    My view is on the optimistic side. It assumes a lot of other things work themselves out. One example is my belief the EU will find a way to stay intact. The cost of it dissolving would be high on all parties. I'm about half as optimistic as you are pessimistic.
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    2011-12 Forecast

    I think we see further appreciation in equities. I also think we will see higher GDP growth in the upcoming years. I think it will be convincing growth and will be accompanied by job growth. The unemployment rate may be stagnant while several hundred thousand jobs are being created a month...
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    2011-12 Forecast

    This is my forecast for the upcoming years. The 2008-2010 section is light on causes and consequences, but is merely intended to highlight a few key points about the situation. The 2010-2012 section has my direction forecast with some details as to why. It could and should be more in depth, but...
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    Silver Head, and Shoulder?

    Then lets see some real time calls with a stated price and we can use ET's time stamp. All I see is someone who changes their mind about direction 10 times a day and hedges their statements so they can always say they were right. If I flip a coin and tell you its going to be heads unless its...
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