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They said they hold 30% of their reserves in commercial paper (but plan to reduce that). Did you confuse this with them offering a 30% return to hold USDT? If not, can you please provide a source?

It obviously depends on how you trade. Spreads are a problem if you need immediate fills and take liquidity from the order book. But spreads can make you money if you keep an order at just the right place on the order book, although this isn't easy to do these days and requires a great...

100% correct. You really have to love probability theory and do the math for this to become clear. Reading about "the math" in the context of some specific domain, such as trading, isn't the way to learn this stuff.

Silver has been a pretty good inflation hedge. It's volatile, of course. But the holding costs are zero for 99.9% of us.

Correct. Gold (and especially silver) are lagging because they are boring right now. History shows this state will not last. Lots of people have gotten rich buying assets when they appeared more boring than dirt.

The 20% return caused capital misallocations that created the inevitable collapse. It might have worked if the primary holder of UST was someone that actually needed the utility of a stable coin. I appreciate their chicken and egg problem, however. You can't get people who need a stable coin...

Soooooo when crypto dropped 50% why didn't the money flow back into gold?

The fee is specified so that it automatically goes up with inflation. The change you are referencing is above and beyond the rate of inflation.

Yes, it is above 0.5. But that isn't the reason for entering the trade. There are lots of assets near some arbitrary price (52 week low, high, VWAP, whatever) that have a 0.5 or greater chance of passing that arbitrary point. But you will find that entering trades for this reason doesn't...

Is your current strategy quantitative or do you use something like TOS or TWS and trade while looking at charts?

Nonlinear regression analysis solves the problem you are describing. What sort of tools that fall under the category of "chaos theory" have you used with market data?

Then I think the discussion can be summed up like this: Any set of conditions you can imagine can be tested to see how they historically performed in the market. This is commonly done but rarely done for the benefit of others.

Are you asking these questions because you want someone else to crunch the data and figure it out for you? Or are you asking how these things are figured out? Figuring it out is fairly straight forward if you have the data and some coding/math skills. You will have to better define the...

You get to figure that out. No one here will answer that question for you.

UST was a neat algorithmic experiment. It's very odd how seriously people took it.

Here's an example. What is the best case for why you would hold this? I understand "speculation" is a reason but that's not what I'm looking for. Is there a mathematical advantage to holding something like this instead of cash if viewed over a large sample size...

The expected value is negative as you said. So why get into one? Just hold cash.

No. And neither will anyone else. Your question is answered using the, "trading can be a full time job" section of my earlier reply. :)

Welcome to the market, where everything correlates. And when things get bad all correlations go to 1. It's tempting to use a Gaussian distribution and assume all events are independent of each other but that model is flawed as you have discovered. There's no easy answer to this.

Structured notes can offer "interest" of 30% or more. There are thousands of them, they are frequently callable and downside protection often goes away if some underlying asset falls more than X% by some date. They are basically side bets that are tied to an asset. If a bank like JP Morgan is...