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We should take out the interim lows

Why in the world would you believe Obama would put us into some huge war??? Makes no sense. His base wouldnt allow for another war or a draft. Lets assume Obama is a crappy candidate. McCain is a dangerous candidate. The US economy cant handle any more. Another war and were going to...

This makes no sense. You really think they would cut out a huge revenue stream like that? The majority of the black box trades are done by a small percentage of extremely high volume traders who can easily afford this. So they would end up cutting out the 95% of the other guys who are...

Classic violent bear market rally

Well, we can argue semantics all you want, but there are pretty clear definitions of bear market out there based on objective numbers, and we hit those numbers. So by that definition, we are indeed in a bear market. Now the question is, is this going to be a shallow weak bear market? An...

37% would take us back to mid 2003 near the bottom of the internet crash. Damn! But your logic seems sound, is certainly in line with bear market history, and you are one of the guys here who actually knows what he is talking about. Sounds reasonable to me. Cutten.... I have a hypothesis...

Rally killers ahead http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/17/news/companies/wachovia_raid.ap/index.htm

The bottom is not likely to be in. Very VERY few bear markets have ended so shallow with a straight reversal and so early after this much damage. There is much too much weighing on the markets these days for this to be a baby bear that will just go away. We need at least one bear market...

No macro traders here on ET?

*bump*

Since were officially in a bear market now, id like to hear what peoples guesses are for a bottom in terms of percentage and length. The average bear market causes a loss of 34% from peak to trough, and considering the above average shit storm thats been brewing in the credit and housing...

I cant believe that is for only ONE quarter. Imagine what this chart looks like if each quarter of 2008 is similar to the first. :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

The last housing bust in SoCal did not hit bottom until the trend in foreclosures reversed. Now be prepared to have your mind blown. With foreclosures we have about 4.5 years of inventory in the queue. Look at the previous foreclosure peak in this graph and then look at what happened in...

But but but, they keep telling me to hurry up and buy before its too late, there will be a fast rebound and the market gets away from me. I just heard the bottom is in again this month, and next month, and next month, and next month LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOO. :p

Too early to scoop. That 350 will go to 280 soon. Time to bid at 280 and hope to catch a panic spike down early :)

Agree. Extra low prices? Nope, not even close. We are still above the previous housing bubble highs. We are still way over priced.

Will be cheaper in a year and cheaper a year after that. Good time to lose money buying property in the bubble markets. They have a long way to go to revert to the mean.

" To justify not buying now, you have to bet that rates won't go up *AND* prices won't climb." Prices have another 20-25% drop to go in the hot markets and there is absolutely nothing out there to cause prices to climb at the rates they did before. Were gonna hit bottom and sit there for a...

Interest rates and housing prices are directly tied to one another as previously stated. Rocketing interest rates means plummeting house prices. The inverse is true too, which is what we saw in this housing bubble. If you have a ton of cash on hand, then you are begging for high interest...

No problem. Lets ignore the blue line. The very first home I pulled up showed a sale price lower than its 2003 price. We clearly are hitting 2003 prices already in san diego all over the place and we will go lower. Picked up the local home trader. Page after page after page of banked...