Search results

The math in that example is undeniable. It proves that scaling out is (much!) more profitable at times than not scaling out. The only determining factor is your % chance of hitting each target. TNG

B1S2, you are skewing the probabilities in your favor to make your point. As you say, "it's simple math, and the numbers don't lie". I posted this before and you either didn't see it, or didn't respond to it. Using different probabilities makes scaling out much more profitable than not. TNG

B1S2 I think you are forgetting to include probabilities in your calculations. Take a look at this: scaling contracts odds payout ev 1 0.9 10 9 %90 going to 10 1 0.01 11 0.11 %1 going to 11 9.11 all out contracts odds payout ev 0...

According to your argument, why wouldn't you take the largest statistical move the instrument has ever made and use that as a price target? Your math is correct in that if the price target actually has ANY chance of occuring at all, it's best to hold full size to that. How do you know that...

I misunderstood what you meant in your first post. I agree with this. TNG

This is the crux of the problem. He's defining scaling out as selling on the way to the profit target, and we are defining it as trying to capture moves after the target. TNG

Not true. If you scale out %90 of your trade at your target price and let %10 ride, where is the emphasis? TNG

When you calculate odds on a trade there's more than just the % chance of it hitting your profit target. What's the % time there's a signifigant % move after your target? It makes sense (depending on your system) to leave a small portion of the trade on to capture a very large move that...

This is the entire problem. You are talking about selling part of the position on the way up, we are talking about exiting part of it when you feel the move is over and leaving some on in case the trend continues in the direction of your trade. TNG

Exactly, we are talking about what happens AFTER maturity. TNG

Why are your scale out prices always less than the profit target price? TNG

I for one think that's great work, keep it up man! TNG

I don't think that was his intentions at all. If you read B1S2's arguments that's exactly what he is saying, imho. TNG

I couldn't agree more. You haven't seen any statistical proof arguing either side from me simply because I haven't done any yet. I am not arguing for either camp at the moment, however, just that I don't think the logic presented in B1S2's example is sound. I would be happy to be proven wrong...

I was talking about the same trader, with the same profit point using two different methods. Whether or not your profit point is wrong has everything to do with it, because when I point out that in that trade scaling out would have made more money you tell me my profit point was wrong! You are...

Right, i am in agreement there. Then what I did is let half the trade run farther than it would have if i sold it all at 9. exiting all at once would have made you less money than scaling out. simple as that. you keep arguing that if you scale out, your profit target is too low if the trade...

No, the profit target was 9 points and I put a trailing stop on the rest. You are basically arguing that if you scale out before the ultimate high of the trade, it's inferior. I agree with that! TNG

Why? the profit target was 9 points. TNG

ES System with 5% winners and 20 trades. 9 point target 3 pt loss. 4 conracts 1st without scaling out 1 winner 9 X (4 contracts) = 36 pts($1800) 19 losers 3 X (4 contracts) = 228 pts ($-11,400) Total Net Loss = -$9600 2nd with scaling out at half 1 winner 9 X (2 contracts)=...

No I'm not, in that case you would have made less money than me. TNG