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Is the significance of the circled area that it was a minor double top before the move down? (sorry don't have my charts as I'm out of town). If so, how did you, or how would you, trade this? Break of TL? ... Details details.. :)

I can't tell maybe because I'm on a phone with a small screen, but did you hand draw that yourself kid? If so do you do that every day? Looks like a 5min time frame but I can't tell for sure as your writing doesn't show up. Whatever the case good job!

Not sure what you mean, but if "expected value" is long, then aren't the odds actually for it to go up, from your perspective anyway? Either way I hope you're still long since it went up!

Don't speak for me; perhaps YOU require a live demonstration, but I don't. You use language which attempts to sounds sincere and maybe you really are because on internet forums it's sometimes hard to tell, but your posts smack of sarcasm--saying please, thank you, "ma'am", yet at the same...

If odds favor it going down, why do you hold onto a long?

As is my usual behavior of the moment, I shorted 94.21 just before the breakdown at 11:42:10 but closed like a little chicken for +10.

You saw a 900 print on oil? Seriously? I saw a 254 buy earlier, but did not see anything close to 900. EDIT: wait, do you mean on the DOM? If so, gotcha, I saw 500 orders on the offer earlier as well, but did not see higher, but then again I don't watch dom much.

That second little bounce just now at 12:02pm, is for all the bottom pickers, just to remind them that they aren't fortune tellers.

I used channels to make a nice trade this morning. It's very simple, but powerful. The channel is up from yesterday, yet at 3:45am price failed to reach the top of the channel. Then before the open an even lower high was made, and after a bearish bar closing at prior support (.68 if i...

Hopefully retired for good reasons, because you were short on that week and not long! :D

Wow, nice stop placement if you stayed in, talk about taking heat! :-)

Simple yet powerful logic. IIRC, it was bighog (or maybe it was you) in your journal who said, 'if you can time entries well enough to fade trends by going with the pullbacks, why can't you just flip that and time trades in the direction of the trend and go with the flow?' (paraphrasing there)...

Not answering for NoDoji, just my own opinion: what I have been doing is to pick one time frame, and try to identify the conditions in THAT time frame. If the 5m is trending up, trade that, even if 60m is overall down. Rarely will all time frames daily through minute line up and if they do it...

I have felt this way and have changed my thinking recently, so I wanted to respond to this. Would you have really traded the pattern, managed it well, and had a profitable trade? Well perhaps, but we fool ourselves by the "grass is greener" outlook when we do this. I don't trade the euro...

Thanks for pointing this out baro-san, and I know this is generally the case. But in this case as you can see in the chart, the structure of the move was such that there were not two easily identifiable lows to connect. This does not look like a classic "up trend" where this can be done, so I...

I considered this aggressive short, but unfortunately I had no confirmation at that point and the picture was not as clear. Shorting with confirmation was, as NoDoji said on another thread, a worse price for a higher probability. A tradeoff I still struggle to find the balance with...

Good stuff, thanks brownsfan. Assuming I am at the computer though, let's say my target is 80 ticks on a trade, initial stop is 15. If it gets into the +60 area and gives some warning signs that are possibly fakes but perhaps genuine reversal signals, it's hard for me to justify giving away...

Cool, thanks for your help! Waiting for a bar close is probably a great step I can take in trying to stop my habit of moving stops early.

Xspurt, I had just drawn the same channel and uploaded it so I might as well post my chart as well. That was my observation--that the channel drawn on the chart was never really respected, thus not a very "good" channel. The channel you drew and that I show in the chart here as well was made...

Thanks BCE for the encouragement, I look forward to more feedback, and to your posts.