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Stop banging your head against the wall - not good. @ironchef don't know if you're interested, but steadyoptions.com does non-directional long straddles and calendars price-earnings. The theory for the straddle is that prior to earnings IV climbs and helps minimize theta decay and hopefully...

I have a couple of absolutes - "cut your losses short" "position size is key to survival" But I guess that counts as a few...:D

I like reactive TA so I liken it to a surfer riding a wave. The waves tell you when to paddle (adjust the position), when to wait for the next swell (stay on the sidelines), and when to ride (...the trend)

The Fall of 2018 20% down move did not violate the primary monthly trend line of the SP5500 from 2009 to present (2020)

...or no one on the otherside of the trade to even get out. I too worry about such things

Yes, absolutely buy what you posted. My understanding is the relative change in IV (strike to strike) way OTM compared to ATM is larger and can be seen on the skew graph

This might not be proof, but there is a discussion on how much skew there is way OTM

I HAVE NO LIFE...but Right now I'm back testing Brexit and I am learning A LOT and I don't regret it

Why do you want to sell naked options? I do, but in small positions compared to my total capital. There are structured positions that give a large flat T-0 line so that if the market is in a range you can make money, if the market continues in the primary direction you make money. Look for Ron...

@Sweet Bobby , tried to send email.

Yes all the greeks and the entire option chain are there. The greeks are needed to maintain an accurate T-0 line. Monitoring the T-0 line is extremely important IMHO, both positionaly and for the entire portfolio

The light blue is IV, the magenta is HV, which to my understanding covers the entire option chain. I believe the answer to your question is "yes, overstatement is both ATM and OTM"

I work with a lot of ex-military and I say, "if I didn't want any crap, I wouldn't be here." No worries

Me too, BIG loss Feb. 2018.

I'm also betting on positive market drift over time and put skew

Oops, I skimmed too quickly - okay, I'm not worthy :(

This is why I recommended a ONE subscription. Test 2013 and don't cheat. Pay attention to Sweetbobby's rules of cutting the 2x loss, test without cutting your losses. For the short puts, test around Aug. 2011, Aug. 2015, Dec. 2015, Feb. 2018, Oct. 2018

I think we're the few and don't forget James Cordier and Victor Niederhoffer :wtf:

Nice rules. What's your management for the losers? In the current market and its bullish bias, I'm using 1x loss (even with probability of a touch).

Forgot about James Cordier