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  1. VolSkewTrader

    Trading the Volatility Smile on Earnings

    You're welcome. If you could split/share the data with another trader or prop group then that's even better. Good luck!
  2. VolSkewTrader

    Trading the Volatility Smile on Earnings

    In the past I've used IVolatility for EOD and Intraday IV market data. You can use OptionMetrics or CBOE's historicial data services too. It can be expensive so beware. Prices can vary and it's cheapest to present yourself as a retail individual, vs a trader with a prop group, where they will...
  3. VolSkewTrader

    Trading the Volatility Smile on Earnings

    Belwo are past volatility curves right before earnings announcements for Google and Amazon. Strategically placed OTM butterflies looked like a screaming buy. But both stock prices moved so much in one direction that almost any long butterfly was an immediate loser....but don't compare to the...
  4. VolSkewTrader

    Trading the Volatility Smile on Earnings

    The earnings month smile shape usually has a big hump of very high IVs around the ATM strike, with the OTM wing IVs trading much cheaper. You're better off buying those cheaper OTM wings and selling the nosebleed high ATM IVs. At least with a "cheap" long wide butterfly, which the earnings...
  5. VolSkewTrader

    Crude Oil

    Good thing May expires in 2 days. June is at least still in 20's.
  6. VolSkewTrader

    May '20 crude futures = $20, June '20 crude futures = $28

    The traders who had early and cheap access to storage are making historic money on the super contango.
  7. VolSkewTrader

    What's your theory on where oil price is heading?

    There are upside strikes in US Treasuries and Eurodollars that imply negative interest rates which are actively traded..something no one ever thought was possible. Never say never. A world where both energy prices and interest rates are negative is not that far away from happening.
  8. VolSkewTrader

    May '20 crude futures = $20, June '20 crude futures = $28

    Here is a really good article on the pitfalls of investing in USO or other oil ETFs in this current environment. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4338311-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-uso-is-not-right-vehicle USO is all about timing, not a long-term hold investment. You're better off buying CL...
  9. VolSkewTrader

    Crude Oil

    The next front month contract, WTI June (CLM20), has huge downside risk (20%+) if depressed demand conditions don't change. I read somewhere it could easy drop from current $25 to $20, since it will be the next month to have exaggerated contango as storage tanks fill up.
  10. VolSkewTrader

    May '20 crude futures = $20, June '20 crude futures = $28

    People rolling their WTI longs (from May to June) are getting smoked. If you are long USO, OIL or BNO ETF, this is exactly what you are doing. Avoid these like the plague when the contango is trading at all-time width differential.
  11. VolSkewTrader

    Right Entry vs. Implied Volatility - what is more crucial for Optionstrading?

    Right entry point essential for directional trading. IV crucial for delta neutral trading.
  12. VolSkewTrader

    Trading the Volatility Smile on Earnings

    You are gambling on a binary event...win or lose big. The high IVs are tempting, but like TheBigShort mentions you have price gap risk on those short OTM wings. The gamma and vega risks accelerate (2nd and 3rd order greek risk) when the stock price rapidly approaches those for OTM shorts. I...
  13. VolSkewTrader

    Crude Oil

    I think market was overly optimistic and was pricing in a possible 20M bpd cut with the US sharing a good portion of the burden. They only got a 9.7M bpd with zero contribution from the US. All US production cuts have been involuntary shut-ins caused by market forces. So the less than 10M bpd...
  14. VolSkewTrader

    Crude Oil

    Brent crude was actually slightly higher most of the day, while WTI front month May got destroyed. The OPEC+ cuts are providing somewhat of a floor outside the US. But there were no voluntary cuts by US producers, so storage space is going to run out much faster in the US than anywhere else in...
  15. VolSkewTrader

    Pricing Skew/Identifying Mispriced Non-ATM options

    For big picture and longer term horizon strategies, use accurate constant maturity EOD (end of day) implied volatilities (IV) in different time series and different market regimes to determine whether intra-month or term structure skew is mispriced or trading at extreme levels. For day trading...
  16. VolSkewTrader

    How to tell when this bull run is done

    Implied Vol Implied Vol (IV) can keep coming in if we become rangebound, and not really explode like you expect if we just grind lower in the stock market. The Fed has effectively put a lid on equity volatility with their unlimited bid in the corporate and high yield market. We will need a...
  17. VolSkewTrader

    Crude Oil

    WTI struggling to break support in the low 19's. It's trading like a stock that is dying and eventually going to zero...
  18. VolSkewTrader

    2.3Trillion from the Fed... Why you want to fight against it?

    Agree with everything you said, except that right now government intervention in the form of the Fed buying every debt security in sight is making investors pile into the bond and coroporate market. If the Fed decides to prop up the equity or commodity market in the same manner, people will buy...
  19. VolSkewTrader

    Crude Oil

    The production cuts may not put a floor in oil prices, but they do provide some psychological support for the commodity. There will be fewer gap moves lower, which will mean lower realized volatility, alleviating a lot of the uncertainty. There's also the notion that OPEC+, US & others will be...
  20. VolSkewTrader

    Crude Oil

    The Fed's indiscriminant buying along with all these government interventions to artificially prop up markets in order to buy ailing and mismanaged industries more time, instead of just letting the weak and overleveraged naturally go bankrupt, is making it almost impossible to short anything.
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