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    probability of in the money question

    I agree with a lot of points made here. So in short I’d have to say the answer to the original question would be no. There’s no linear equation that would work. It could be close but there’s many variables. By the time a security moves 10 points it would effect IV, the move would take time...
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    probability of in the money question

    I agree with this, look at delta for a percentage. To further the delta example one could use gamma to find out the change in delta. Gamma is used to gauge how a one point move in the underlying will effect delta. This would be easy for a single point. So for multiple points you’ll have to use a...
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    (: This 2020 US President Candidate wants to give everyone $1,000 / month :)

    I could pay an extra 3k in taxes a month to get my cool 1k.
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    AAPL - Earnings May 1

    You’re right long term they do. I was just saying those looking to take a piece of pie out of a few day move don’t really care. All these options plays on AAPL were basically earning plays be gone tmr or in a few days. OP was wrong about 180 as of now but buying 167.50 strikes is doing fine...
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    2018 P/L year to date +40%

    At the point Vol can’t make 80% anymore, it’ll be like so what. He’d be swinging so big 10% a year would be the kind of money others still dream of.
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    AAPL - Earnings May 1

    I don’t think traders really care about your fundamental analysis. Pretty much every strategy mentioned here is well ITM up over 100% on position. Good luck getting 100% returns with your naked short.
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    AAPL - Earnings May 1

    Pretty close to my spread 170 to 175 cost $1.30 for 5.00 potential
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    Blowing up/ getting wiped out on options

    I guess some people are informed before hand and some after. The event and the timing itself wasn’t predictable but the fact that it was a floor and and not a true peg was obvious before hand. SNB made that clear it was protecting appreciation of CHF it wasn’t a peg but a floor. EUR/CHF was...
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    Technical Analysis is total rubbish! Here's the proof!

    I would hypothesize majors become range bound pending the news that takes place this week, this seems to be what happened later in the week last week, any PA will most likely be the result of the multiple unemployment reports, rate statements and GDP reports. I was just curious what you thought...
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    Blowing up/ getting wiped out on options

    Honestly idk why anyone that was familiar with FX was trading CHF when that took place. It was basically the same as taking a EUR position, except EUR had better spreads and more liquidity. It would be like trading something pegged against the dollar instead of USD itself. Why? Not only that...
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    Why an Investor Is Predicting Bitcoin Could Hit $700,000

    Did you expect a crypto to “think” of anything like that? I thought the same if stuff hits the fan cryptos are wiped. Not only that what’s stopping governments from converting their current currencies to digital?
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    Why an Investor Is Predicting Bitcoin Could Hit $700,000

    Oh geez he must have a really big position to offload. Lol
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    Technical Analysis is total rubbish! Here's the proof!

    Considering the heavy calendar for both Fundamental and Economic releases this week, what is your analysis? How have you positioned for these upcoming events?
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    Technical Analysis is total rubbish! Here's the proof!

    It is initially. For me I had to look at thousands and thousands of charts, multiple times. I really don’t know how many charts I looked at the count is really high though on multiple time frames, with different indicators no indicators, with support and resistance drawn, with angled trend lines...
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    Technical Analysis is total rubbish! Here's the proof!

    i guess not everyone can see it or use it. That’s like saying black jack is a rubbish game for a casino since the dealer doesn’t win every hand or every players game. TA or PA is meant for odds, winning percentages and risk rewards. Problem is most people think that TA is meant to be a highly...
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    HELP!

    I’m lost how does a ITM option lapse? Isn’t ITM automatically exercised? Hence the reason IB would’ve liquidated you had enough capital for the contract but not the underlying. Any ITM position still has intrinsic value. By my calculation your option has an IV of 56.00 and IB is going to auto...
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    How much depth do you have to your strategy

    I know Xela hasn’t been fond of some of my reading lists before, and I agree with her if people are looking to use the systems found in some popular books, don’t use the books for the systems. Those probably aren’t the best systems. I really do think “trading for a living” is a quick easy read...
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    How much depth do you have to your strategy

    For sure (well, that's where we all started off, isn't it?), and that's not helped by the fact that there's quite a bit of talking at cross-purposes in the thread, and not everyone purporting to advise the OP is using those terms with exactly the same meanings anyway. No criticism of anyone...
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    Bitcoin miners facing a shakeout as profitability becomes harder

    I think the more blocks in the chain the harder it becomes to mine. This is why I consider it inefficient technology. If a block is added every time a transaction occurs imagine how many blocks would be there if it was actually used as real currency. Just think if every transaction we made...
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    Bitcoin miners facing a shakeout as profitability becomes harder

    Agree that eventually they’re eliminated. However the possibility of a black market survival exist. Bitcoin wasn’t really the first digital currency. It’s the first mainstream but 10 years back someone showed me some HYIP programs that only would accept digital currency. Of course it was being...
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