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Its just luck, a gazillion bots are already arb'ing the major indices/underlying component stocks, there is no edge to be gained from observing movements in the underlying issues.

Well H&S fails frequently (just like many other technical patterns). Besides, there was already an attempt to break the neckline yesterday, but it failed (hence the hammer).

Well mktrader mentioned that many saw the hammer (one with a long tail!) as a buy signal because it occurred near previous points where the market had successfully turned around. Its obvious that nobody was going to trade this hammer if there weren't other supporting signs. The hammer is a...

Hammer, what? :D

And how many of these hedge funds have outperformed the market on say a ten year basis? Very few.

Most of them do not even trade direction, ever heard of algotrading and statistical arbitrage? Very few hedge funds that trade direction have outperformed the market in the long run, thats evidence that the future cannot be predicted.

That you can predict the future by looking at past events.

The market is random, it doesn't need a reason to selloff.

This whole thing is a farce, the market doesn't even care about it. 10 yr yields wouldn't be under 3% if there was any possibility of a default, at all.

Fooled by randomness. :D

A fairly large sell order came in and the bots jumped in to arb away the difference by selling the component stocks. As for the subsequent surge minutes later... well thats just normal intraday randomness.

Yes thats true, this is why I have always believed that its not possible to daytrade and make money in very efficient markets (which will inevitably be infested with bots/HFTs/etc). However this does not mean that every market/instrument is efficient, there will always be loopholes and...

Well somebody's got to be raking in all the cash if 90% of retail traders are losing money...

Some strategies require liquidity, and by liquidity I don't mean market makers or bots (yes it matters).

Looks like the HFTs have sucked most retail traders/investors dry, or perhaps they now realise its very difficult to beat the HTFs, so they are staying away from the market.

Imo backtesting doesnt work because the past cannot be used to predict the future, market behaviour changes all the time, they are more dynamic than most people think.

Yea, but I'm pretty certain that most HFTs do not trade direction, most of them are just front running bots that are profiting from the spreads.

Because 95% (or maybe more) of the retail traders often attempt to predict the market, when it clearly isn't predictable. You only have an "edge" when you don't need to BET on what the market will do in the next few mins, hours or days to make money consistently.

Yea the black-scholes formula didn't eliminate risk, it merely enabled traders to better price risk, and it doesn't always work. LTCM went down because they didn't factor in implied volatility - a variable that can change anytime. There isn't anyway to trade without taking risks, even traders...

I did mostly arbitrage, so no I didn't refer to things like charts or financial statements. Slippage wasn't a problem for the instrument that I was trading, though I had a hard time finding a broker who would let me trade those things for cheap.