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OTM puts of stocks and indices, because of the skew, are not priced the same as OTM calls. Unless one is a marketmaker who lives off of the spread, the buying and selling of options, regardless of strike, has ON AVERAGE the same expectancy: zero minus commissions minus vig. The long term...

Technical traders tend to be weak hands, esp in volatile commodities such as ng. Using a large stop is probably a good idea if you're a long-term short. Any target on the downside? I think it oculd go as low as 6. Not that I hope it does, but I am ready for it.

If it hits 6, consider it a gift, and buy.

He has been saying things about TTWO for about four years. Talk about beating something to death already.

I scaled in, and now I am scaling out. I am ready if it drops--I agree that 6 is probably as low as it will go. I have sell orders in the nid 9's and mid 10's. Trading in the more distant months suggests that prices will probably not drop below this week's low, but you have to be ready in...

How short term is this spec (a day? a week? longer?). I am somewhat surprised, since I haven't seen many of these kinds of positions in your journal. In the immediate short term I am not strongly bullish, having sold some itm calls against my core long ES and NQ positions as a hedge. But...

Gee, wonder if anyone sold those teenies on Thursday? If, so, I hope they hedged!!

Yes, I bought one on Friday too: 8.825. I looked back over six years of NG trading--the worst short-term drop I could find. I'd love to trade a more distant month (April, at least). We'll see how goes next week.

NIce trade. I was just curious--in that situation would you ever consider putting on a 1X2 or more spread (ratio spread), buying a lower vol, lower strike call and selling many more higher vol. higher vol calls? Or is it easier (for you) to buy the stock? When I read your post the first...

IB only offers Feb and March contracts on both emini oil and nat gas (IB deals only in electronically traded futures--a major shortcoming, imo).

But can you trade these at IB? I am not so sure. All I saw on my screen were Feb and March.

Check out the data: the net worth of Americans is at an all-time high (stocks, real estate, etc). People do not necessarily save from their paychecks into passbook savings, but debt is manageable and generally at still relatively low interest rates. We are definitely not a country short on...

That is not positive expectancy, for the fact that actual vol was lower than implied vol was apparent only after the fact.

Many who set up "credit spreads" sell deep otm options and protect themselves by buying even deeper ones (not all do--some sell atm. They are not selling "cheap gamma"). Gamma is lower the further one goes away from the atm strike, so the gamma at these otm is low. In the case of a sharp...

Are you sure? The quotes are there (corn, wheat), but I don't think IB lets you trade them. I asked IB a few weeks ago, since I was wanting to go long on March corn back when it was just above 2.00. I pulled up the quote, but could not make a trade. When I asked CS, I was told that corn...

I am talking about naked selling. If I do iron condors/butterflies I will try to buy the wings some time (days, weeks) AFTER selling (in other words, I leg in). In other words, I might start with a straddle and convert to flies, or, if the position goes against me, hedge. I do not do bear...

Real world: 1. Past is no predictor of present. 2. Just because predicted vol (IV) on AVERAGE was higher than actual volatility does not mean that everyone, or most, who sold premium profited during that time. I like selling index prem because of decreased gap risk (that explains lower...

Do not go hog wild on margin. I would be wary about selling more than 4-5K in premium per 100K. I sell index premium (ES or NQ). I sometimes will sell otm puts on stocks I would not mind owning. If the straddle goes against me I will hedge by buying/selling the underlying. I generally...

I have sold straddles and strangles intermittently over the last three years. I sell only when I see vol either going nowhere or down (I don't sell every month). I have also sold otm puts when I do not mind if I were forced to buy the underlying. I have soundly beaten the market, but...

In a volatile uptrend (large range days and weeks), VIX could increase. But if the market is in an uptrend, the VIX would still be comparatively low. The rule of thumb is that the VIX is lowest when the market is close to 52-week or longer highs, and is highest when the market is making new...