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+1 Excellent post and a great assessment. Joe.

Myth. Success in trading stocks may be helpful to being successful in trading options but not a prerequisite. Joe.

Calling Kelly dumb is like calling a hammer dumb when you are trying to cut a board into two pieces. Yes you can take some whacks at the board and may in fact get the board into two pieces but probably not with the best results. The right tool for the right job. You cannot apply Kelly...

About 7 weeks. That produces the best risk/reward profile for most of my options trades. Joe.

First, please note that I did not mean to intimate that LTCM's people were stupid; they were actually geniuses that got caught in a set of circumstances that they did not anticipate. Which goes to my point that Kelly is better used where your risk input is actually the floor and not a...

I disagree, here's why: The fact of the matter is that LTCM's approach to risk was too simple because it did not account for all possibilities. Kelly can be very dangerous if you are not aware of or take into consideration all your risks. Despite that, Kelly can still be used but you have...

I have seen the name but I honestly don't know who he is or what he does. Joe.

Ralph, I don't want to assume anything. Is this your response to my question below? I have a set-up where I risk $3.50 to make $1.00 with an 80% success rate. In other words, on average I make $1.00 4 out of 5 times and I lose $3.50 once in every 5 trades. What is the optimal size investment...

No need for you to post your paper but I would like an answer to the following in an attempt to better understand where we differ. I have a set-up where I risk $3.50 to make $1.00 with an 80% success rate. In other words, on average I make $1.00 4 out of 5 times and I lose $3.50 once in...

With all due respect, I have been using Kelly for over 30 years for all kinds of "investments" including sports and pari-mutuel wagering. :eek: At the very least, you are misrepresenting Kelly either because you don't really understand Kelly or because of your own agenda. If it is not...

Let's agree to disagree. Given the edge and the odds, anyone can easily prove to themselves using just MS Excel that Kelly is the optimal % of capital to risk for optimal capital growth. Joe.

Ralph, With all due respect, there has to be a communication problem here because if you know your edge and the odds, Kelly is mathemtically proven to be optimal. All other %'s will underperform. Can you give me an example of edge and odds where Kelly is not optimal? Joe.

:eek: There has to be a miscommunication somewhere. Assuming perfect inputs, Kelly is the % of your capital to invest for optimal capital growth. Yes, I know that an individual's inputs are probably not going to be perfect which is why many suggest a fractional Kelly and in my case I use...

Maybe I don't understand. What is there to do? You gave him the "grail" already, the only difference now is that he is starting his journey with half a bankroll. Let him use that for the next 6 months (or go back to your original year) and continue with the original plan. Joe.

+1 The above pretty much sums up my own experiences as well. Good post. I would suggest that the reason that the Moses and Bethlehem questions were answered correctly is probably more due to the movies and/or Holiday songs than any specific religious knowledge in context. (Is that being...

I prefer two legs (or less :eek: ). Joe. :)

What is your definition of "ripped off" (and why do you appear to be angry)? I didn't say that I don't care about price, just that price is only one factor in a buying decision for me. If my budget was tight, then maybe price would be a greater factor but thankfully my budget is not tight...

The ease and convenience is worth that to me as well as the ability to sample many different varieties of coffee (and teas) without having to buy 20 different bags of coffee. In addition, I do not make many purchase decisions based on price alone. Thankfully I have the wherewithall to be able...

I am someone that buys coffee pods. I don't think I am a moron but maybe I am because I don't understand the point you are trying to make. Joe.

First, I would check my calculations and/or assumptions again before I would assume that 80% Kelly was the correct answer. I also agree with using half-Kelly (which I use) as it gives you protection against overallocating (a very bad thing with Kelly) and also cuts down on the volatility and...