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you're sadly mistaken. the p/e of the sp500 is currently 16, which is the historic average. its historic lows are at 6. whether a bear market will begin now, i don't know, because it depends on more than just the p/e. by the way, for much of the 1973-1977 period, the sp500's p/e was at or...

the level of wittiness in this comment makes me think you're a 15 year old acne-covered geek. i bet if someone said they were so hungry they could eat a horse, you'd point out that it's not possible for the human stomach to digest a horse. rofl.. get out some more and learn some social...

this is what you said, smartass: "So in essence once you've filed bankruptcy, you'll end up with better credit than most out there, oddly enough" so you're saying that the moment someone files for bankruptcy, their credit becomes better than most people's? if you have "better credit", you...

you can say the same thing about many professions. in general, americans are just plain fat. it follows that traders who are americans would likely be fat too. interestingly, have you noticed a lot of physicians are overweight? of all people.... goes to show you that the obesity problem...

1000% b.s. why don't you file for bankruptcy and let me know how your fico turns out? i can't believe some of the crap i read on e.t.

none of these is bold or unreasonable enough to be called a black swan. a black swan prediction might be some homeless guy in miami who used to sell furniture ends up president in 2008. sp500 drops 25%? come on, that's hardly a black swan. everyone knows the economy is weakening, is it that...

i'm not wrong. but that article is wrong and i can't believe no one here noticed. (actually, i can believe that...). the odds of winning those particular lotteries twice with just two tickets is 1 in 24 trillion. but it took them 124,000 tickets to win twice, hence the odds are 1 in 192...

i believe the rand() function in excel creates normally distributed values, or as good as you can get with software. it does so by selecting numbers from a pool of pre-generated, random numbers. other software-based random number generators use an algorithm with a hardware seed value, and the...

this experiment is so poorly thought out it proves nothing. what makes you think the stock market only moves -1, 0 or +1 per day? theoretically it can move -100% to +N% per day if you assume daily movements are truly random and normally distributed (which they are not). change your...

wow, so you're happy to mention you made $100m in profits and was rated #1 by some service and would be in the bowling hall of fame and have averaged 40% annualized, but when someone asks about your biggest loss or worst year, you say that's too personal? but mentioning the other things isn't...

no it cannot. if something is 100% random, it will form a normal distribution curve, nothing else. if it forms an abnormal curve, it is not random. if the markets were 100% random, then statistically the odds of a single-day drop of 22% (ala 1987) was less than one in one trillion to the...

not true. if you are in the "underclass" and don't qualify for a loan on a $20k nissan, do you think you can get a loan for a $20k chevy? no you can't. the ford f-350 mentioned in the article has no foreign competition, that couple couldn't have bought a toyota in that size even if they wanted...

lol. no way. this year was nothing like the worst years. anyone who thinks 2007 was extremely volatile probably has less than 3 yrs experience. check the period 1997-2002. vix was usually in the 20-40 range, peaking in the 50s. there were three days i can think of where the market...

with all this talk about canned tuna, i'd say the most valuable thing in armageddon would be a can-opener. however, i wouldn't worry the collapse of all civilization. such an event is beyond reason; or if it happened, we'll be all dead (nuclear holocaust). who cares if you have 100k in...

this thread is hilarious. if you want a hedge against reasonable levels of inflation, buy the gold etf. if you want a hedge against hyperinflation and potential destruction of the united states of america and total collapse of the global financial system, buy the bullion (and bottled...

i receive alerts on my cell when certain indicators are reached, but my cell's ringtone is too inconspicuous for text messages. can someone recommend a cell that has a really loud and obnoxious ringtone when you receive a text msg? preferrably one that rings like someone's calling you...

it's the exact opposite. if the market were 100% random (ie, it followed a perfect normal distribution), then it'd be easy to profit because you now have a clear and perfect statistical model to describe the market behavior and that model would never fail. but the market is occasionally not...

for most of its history, apple products have generally been "closed" and required you to use proprietary products/upgrades from apple. if you knew apple from the 80s and 90s with their apple II-series and macs, you'd know what i'm talking about. the locking and relocking of the iphone shouldnt...

so you discard a real event just because its existence contradicts your claim? how convienent. your plot actually proves my point that the stock market is not normally distributed. i don't see any 1987-like crash in your graph, any september 11-like crash, the 1997 crash, the 1998 crash...

none. at least, no one i know of has ever defined the curve with any level of specificity. if i or anyone knew the curve, we would in essence be able to predict the market. one thing is for sure, it is NOT a normal distribution. a number of events such as black monday 1987 have proved this...