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  1. O

    My 2013 Option Trades.... part 3

    It's only a proxy for cash if it is not dropping in value. Meanwhile, TLT has dropped 15 points over the past 7 months. For the tiny annual yield it's offering, I think cash is a better place for the cash You have to understand the context in which treasuries are trading and how they are...
  2. O

    My 2013 Option Trades.... part 3

    I have no idea what you are talking about Here's a little help: Rather than keep cash in my account I automatically move almost all cash into treasuries. This was a good plan back when treasuries were paying near 4%, is less a good idea now that long term treasuries are paying in the...
  3. O

    Conservative Options Trades

    ORCL: The expectation on that Sept 26/21 spread became zero today... with the spread yielding $35. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=orcl :-) I think we will see sub 30 on ORCL especially if the market as a whole takes a pause as many expect it to. Still waiting
  4. O

    My 2013 Option Trades.... part 3

    What is your treasury contract commitment to earn your 19%? 890 + x = 2790 x= 2790 - 890 = 1900 TLT is at 117 so that's 1900/117 = 16-17 shares per You can do much much better if you use DIM TLT spreads to hold the money instead. More like .33(.51) + .66(.10) = .165 + .07 = 23.5%
  5. O

    My 2013 Option Trades.... part 3

    29 Naked short put for $90......Yield = 90/2810 = 3.2% in 88 days or 3.2(365/88) = 13.3% annualized vs 2 29/25 bull put spreads for $110...Yield = 110/890 = 12.4% in 88 days or 12.4(365/88) = 51.4% annualized ...(using 2/3 reserve in treasuries annualized yield = .33(51.4) + .66(2.72) = 16.9...
  6. O

    Conservative Options Trades

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracles-3q-earnings-disappoint-122830931.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ORCL+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=orcl http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ORCL&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=...
  7. O

    UK options

    This is all news to me: For Yanks who don't follow what's going on in the UK: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/03/22/what-a-sad-little-empire-britain-has-become.html...
  8. O

    UK options

    I looked it up. The cheapest room at the new Charing Cross for April 1st is $246 a night. A similar room in Philadelphia at the Valley Forge Hilton is $179 a night. Now I used to stay at both these hotels. I can't remember what I used to pay at Charing Cross but it was much less than...
  9. O

    UK options

    For those unfamiliar W1 is the west end of London and is quite upscale. It contains famous places like Bond street, Baker street and Piccadilly. I used to stay at the Charing Cross Hotel on top of Charing Cross station in w1. I loved to walk around central London from there. I...
  10. O

    Conservative Options Trades

    ORCL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracles-3q-earnings-disappoint-122830931.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ORCL+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=orcl http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ORCL&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=...
  11. O

    Conservative Options Trades

    COP: 'ConocoPhillips Company (NYSE: COP) is an American multinational energy corporation with its headquarters located in the Energy Corridor district of Houston, Texas in the United States. It is the world's largest independent pure-play exploration & production company and is also one of...
  12. O

    Seeking advice on writing (and covering) short options

    'For example, oldnemesis was not even aware he was using leverage via his credit spreads, until i pointed it out.' As usual you flatter yourself. I just got tired of argueing with you and wanted to shut you up. Like now :-)
  13. O

    Seeking advice on writing (and covering) short options

    I use probability and distribution to determine the probability that price will not go below my put strike. This is how I get expectation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value Put Master gets what he calls 'probability' but it is not the probability that you and I know as...
  14. O

    Seeking advice on writing (and covering) short options

    Of course we are predicting something. Every put seller is predicting where the underlying price will NOT go. If our prediction is right we win if our prediction is wrong we lose. If I sell puts at $30 I am predicting that the price will remain above $30. I don't see how a sane...
  15. O

    Seeking advice on writing (and covering) short options

    'it's either a slow bleed or a bullet to the head' So we can't win??? What if the probability of winning $.25 is 4 times the probability of losing $1. Would you take the trade?? E = 4(.25) - 1($1) = 0 Why bother?? Then what if the probability of winning $.25 is 5 times the...
  16. O

    Conservative Options Trades

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT+Basic+Chart&t=5y Decision Table TLT bull put spreads at different expirations Month...............Days.......Premium..........Yield..........Annualized.......Prob.............E April...
  17. O

    Conservative Options Trades

    DBA: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/look-at-commodities-not-equities-for-new-trades-2013-03-12?siteid=yhoof2 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DBA&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=DBA&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: July 25/20 bull put spread for $24: Yield...
  18. O

    My 2013 Option Trades.... part 3

    "Don't know why you are always so angry and insulting." Whatchu mean??? Insulting?? I'll insult you you %^$#& :-) That's funny. I was just watching a farce/mob movie where they make fun of those crazy Sicilian mobsters and their penchant to kill people...especially anybody who insults...
  19. O

    My 2013 Option Trades.... part 3

    PM We've gotten to a point where I can't follow what you are talking about. If you have any anticonvulsive drugs available you should take them now. :-) You seem to want solid terms for incorporating the high yield spreads I am always talking about into an overall portfolio. OK In...
  20. O

    Best way to annualize yield from naked puts?

    THAT's IT: PM is getting the idea. Jesus Christ it's a miracle!!
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