Search results

I am certain it will be. You did not account for inside days. There will be outside days as well.

Regardless of the previous Day's Price Pattern, if a stock opens in the upper 50% of the previous day's range, what's the probability of the following events: A new high above the previous day's high will be made during the day. A new low below the previous day's low will be made during...

I have found an lot of value in determining market direction when looking at the Open in Relation to the Previous Day's Range. I previously asked a question about the Previous Day's Close and it's predictability on the following day's market direction. I plan to publish some vague but...

Just a little follow-up note as to different tendencies in different types of markets: This method for reducing risk is applied only to trend-following methods and not reversion to the mean methods. When you compare the results trading individual stocks vs. market-based ETF's it's obvious...

I get the exact same results as well implementing profit targets. I have attempted numerous types of combinations of profit target / stop-loss and these are not as effective as letting the winners run. I have found that profit-targets may help smooth the pnl equity curve, but it does not...

A few other simple ideas: Base the Profit and Stop on the volatility of the instrument. My research shows that this is the Single Most Important factor in regards to intra-day profit target / stop-loss placements. This is because the volatility is the most important change in price-action...

Before the book even begins, the introduction discusses the issues that impair the discretionary trader. This discussion involves a belief system and this is a major reason why it's difficult for a trader to switch from discretionary trading to algorithmic / automated trading. I have...

Persistence

Very interesting that the most profitable were the simplest...but not surprising. However, I find it shocking that a human trader's Sharpe ratio is around ~1.03. Not doubting, but is there a source available for the human trader's data quoted? I would like a more in-depth look at how that...

Totally agree! It has never been a good idea to trade paying retail commissions. I have been asked many times if my platform is capable of graybox trading, allowing a trader to take a trade on discretion. While there is a simulated version that could act as a graybox, It was not designed...

I personally do not think so. I started out using a spreadsheet that got real-time quotes and changed colors to alert me as to when to get in and out of a position. That's when I got the idea that I needed to develop a program to make the trades for me. Excel is an excellent starting place...

The sad part is - I found out later that he attempted to do what I was doing, but was unsuccessful. The problem was, he had NO CLUE as to what I was doing. I am certain he was very confused when there was a long position in one stock and a short in another. (And this was not a pair trading...

I personally don't think of trading as predicting anything. I developed my own methodology based on math / probabilities / statistics and the trades are not based on technical analysis. I KNOW that being able to DEFINE the RISK of the TRADE at ENTRY is an extremely valuable asset to the...

That's why a systematic approach should be more desirable. However, the ego is a very powerful thing and this is probably a bigger reason why more would rather trade discretionary rather than systematic.

I don't know if it's possible to transform a discretionary trader into becoming or believing in a systematic trading approach. Unfortunately, it comes down to a belief that the trader can, at the right time outsmart the market. Sometimes he may be able to, other times he may not. The...

I don't have a clue, have you voted already?

This indicates that the SPY (and other market-based ETFs) will need to move a greater distance in one direction before it would be safe to take a trade in that direction. This is also a reason why many traders trade the SPY using RTM (Reversion to the Mean) methods. These same (RTM)...

In regards to the above statement - Last year while I was testing the platform and creating new strategies. The manager at the firm spoke with me on the phone after a month of being consistently profitable (while trading small share lots and the exact same rules everyday) and said - we are...

I will share some of my research starting next week. I will add that one major issue is that different markets have different tendencies. Many teachers teach traders that they must watch one market to trade another (For instance, watching the SPY to trade a specific stock) and my research...

I certainly agree that the CLOSE is valid. I was just testing to determine if it's location could give me an indication of what side of the market to be on the following day.