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It's either the market hanging you up by your balls... Or bollinger band and donchian channel with wacky data?? :D

You have to do it piece meal. Don't try to do everything at once.... Code a little bit... Test it out as proof of concept... Debug... Save the code into a backup file.... Add some more element or layer. You can even test individual element as separate simple systems before putting the layers...

This is what I do (Don't know if it works)... Like I approach any programming problem, I have to put the finger on the core of the problem first: 1) Focus on your favorite discretionary setup... Stuff that you really like and excited about. 2) Come up with a hypothesis on why your setup...

I am not selling intuition and experience short. I remember a few times scratching out of trades just before the real disasters strike based on some "Jedi" force... can't explain. I know any good trader can outtrade the bots any day... What I am saying is that system traders are more...

I think Peter Ponzo said in his article that he was assuming the distribution to be lognormal instead of normal to simplify the math. It is NOT the real deal... it is just a model construct based on correct math. He is just showing how things should have been done mathematically starting with...

I would not be surprised that on a good day a discretionary trader can trade a similar strategy 5-10x better than a system. But I think the Bots will win the battle against human over the long haul due to systems' ability to crank out consistent trades (winners and losers). As quoted in the...

Bush has been shorting since reelection. :D

If automated trading volume keeps its pace... it will be more like machines against machines. :eek:

Actually some people also try the reverse logic for the mean-reverting effect... For some trend following systems, the profitability relies mainly on a few big trades. Skipping them might be problematic. :confused:

Thanks for sharing... I do think confidence testing is valuable but as someone else told me as a rule of thumb... you should have at least 95% confidence level for your system's profitability (over many trade sequences).

I understand where this is coming from... you have to respect the risks first. :)

Equity curve tactics can hurt the systems is probably because the trades are more or less independent events (losing streak does not necessarily make the next trade more likely a loser at least for system trading) but there is a huge opportunity cost into thinking you are losing your edge...

Hi Eric, Have you done testing on the effects of activate/deactivate using short-term confidence test on the your systems? BTW, I do perform confidence test on the overall history of my systems so I am not questioning that. The reason I am asking is that there is also the logical idea of...

You can't think like that or you would think the market is constantly ganging up on you... Are you asking for a cheap way to get started? For discretionary trading: Ensign charting (free data feed if you are using IB or Interactive Brokers) For system trading: Tradestation

Good call, Nick!

I would tell the kid to setup a porno site and stay away from the market. You don't want the kid to get fucked by the market while you get fucked by the aliens. :(

Can you tell us which brokerage firm it is so we can avoid them?

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/bolli-bands.htm

Hi John, I was in the same spot as you until I research and refresh my Statistics 101 memory a little. I am gonna rephrase what I've already said: 1) A segment of a price series is just weird to be considered as a population. The returns of a stock in a given time interval make a better...

To be fair, Mr. Bollinger does point out some of the wrong assumptions of BB.