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You can't go through life losing sleep because you can't disprove that there are no suitcases orbiting Saturn. Likewise, I don't think a person should go through their financial life worrying that a Black Swan event may happen because they have never experienced one. The only way to stop...

Notice the article said nurses dropped off the list. It's all about supply and demand. When the supply of qualified workers falls, employers will have to increase wages to attract more workers. High school economics 101. When nursing wages rose due to a shortage of workers, the number of...

Of course predicting tops and bottoms can't be done consistently by anyone, and therefore the need for "complicated" strategies. BTW: Here is some C++ code that uses the Method of Bisection to calculate IV using Black-Scholes...

I actually think that manipulating the market by using the market itself (e.g. trying to move the futures premarket) is legal, ethical, and good business strategy. Fomenting certainly is none of those. The only way to make a security go higher is to buy it. If Cramer was initiating large...

There is likely a carrying cost in the form of property taxes asscociated with the lots however. Do away with the tax and it might be feasible to hold for a decade or more until values rise again.

The article says 70% of the work is done by computers. I wonder what that means? It goes on say that they can tweak variables at any time, and that they are constantly developing new models and algorithms. So maybe for a time period it is automated while running, but it implies if left alone...

Use WPA2 with AES+TKIP, and you should be fine for almost anything. DO NOT USE WEP! MAC filtering can be gotten around, and not broadcasting SSID really doesn't mean much. Unless you're NSA, or other sophisticated hacker, no one is going to break AES+TKIP, especially in real-time. Even NSA...

I haven't seen anyone offer any proof in this thread that such a system exists, just conjectures. Nobody has referenced a news article, peer reviewed journal article, company 10K, blog, etc! Having a money machine is a trader fantasy in my opinion.

The whole problem is that you never know when black swan events will enter the market and cause you a huge loss before you can manage your position. That 10% time that you lose can end up being more than you ever made from the 90% wins. There is no way you knew that we would have a 500 point...

The problem with selling strangles or condors is that you decrease the probabilites of either leg finishing OTM. Of Course they can't both be losing positions, but the loss you might take on one leg most likely won't be made up for in the two premiums collected. In other words, you have a...

Actually, payoff = probability*(reward/risk) Typically, the higest payoffs involve the ATM or slightly ITM strikes. Calculate probabilities thusly: stddev=(exp(future price/current price))/(volatility*sqrt(# days to expiry/252)) then in a spreadsheet use =normsdist(stddev) to get...

There is one way and one way only to make a stock go up and that is to buy it. People buy breakouts because they believe other people will keep buying agressively after them. Actually, it's why people initaiates longs in the the first place, because they think others will come in and bid up...

You could sell a calendar spread to take advantage of the collapse in IV. However, if you get the direction of the underlying wrong, it will be hard to make a profit even if you get IV right. In fact if you get direction wrong, it will be hard to make money from any strategy. Better to know...

I believe F. Scott Fitzgerald wrote: "Show me a hero and I'll prove to you they're a scoundrel."

Why is it called OpenQuant when it's not open sourced software? It's fine if you are trying to make money by selling closed source software. Just don't try to piggyback off the open source software movement and decieve anyone by using the word open in your product name.

Yahoo Finance has an interesting article on return after n-consecutive days. http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/070126/15384.html Seems like this is a strong case for mean reversion methods over trend following methods. Of course if one was able to predict that n-consective days consistently led to...

I highly recommend that traders read The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther. One of the cardinal rules is to always sell too soon.

First off, thanks everyone for all the great input in this thread. Yes, any time frame should be as valid as the next. From a practical viewpoint however , if you used one minute bars and manually entered orders, you would realy need to be on the ball. I have been experimenting with five minute...

I don't agree with the commission statement, but this is a technique to put one on the right side of the trend. In sideways markets, this method will often stop you out. However, when prices start to run, this method will get you in early, and on the side of the momentum. The price action...