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That looks like at least 3 flips though (B/A traded down to the bottom green line, yesterday close? up through upper green line, and back down lower, the final flip), either way, interesting idea. You trading it ab? :)

Just read the entire thread, pretty interesting and only have a few things to add. First off, I can't imagine why there was talk about averaging down and whether stops should even be used. Trading the spread is still trading, the rules still apply. It's a losing game, if the position you are...

The majority of the real orders are broken up, aren't they? 10k shares isn't a LOT compared to the 100k+ orders that are broken up into 100+ seperate orders, and when these start hitting the market is when the real movement occurs.

It takes a certain level of expertise to be able to lose 98% in 7 days (no sarcasm here, lol)

Woke up at 11am and hit the bid, exited 506 at 5.34, a pretty good day. 1/2/04 Current Equity: $2,706.29 Starting Equity: $2,500.00 (1/1/04) Current Return: 8.25% 1 Winner/0 Losers Past Trades IONA 6.59% 1/2/04

Ok, I'm resetting my performance as planned. Several reasons but mainly because I want to keep a daily record of equity so I could draw an equity curve. My play for Friday is IONA, buying 506 at 5.01. My current equity is 2,539.44, for performance calculations I'm going to round my starting...

Oh well, here's my first trade. Assuming that QQQMJ (36 Jan QQQ Put) opens tomorrow where it is right now (0.55x0.60), I'm buying 200 contracts at the ask ($12000), that's $200 in coms ($1/contract @ IB) and $1000 lost to the spread. Current account value: $23800, holding 200 36 Jan QQQ Puts.

Lumber trader sounds fun

I didn't see this mentioned anywhere, but when does the competition end? Only wondering because I plan to enter with options trades (is this allowed, btw?) and want to know when I need to get out, thanks.

Fill or kill? All or none?

That is correct. The turns in the bradley model are supposed to forecast turning points in the market (direction and strength are not forecasted). The next turn would be on 1/16, if the current rally continues I assume that will be the date of a correction

http://www.nqoos.com/bradleymodelforecast.htm

It's as old as trading, nothing special about it. Didn't say there was no risk, it's lower risk than trading commodities outright :) You still have to trade. It's also a better option than trading commodities unhedged because margin reqs for spreads are much lower.

Makes sense. So you're saying that large shifts in psychology (which occur at market tops and bottoms) don't always reveal themselves on the chart (at least not at that moment), but can still be measured? Only way I can see this working is maybe taking a large pool of people trading the market...

Ever looked into spread trading? Trading seasonal spreads on commodities is a fairly low risk strategy and can give you several hundred percent on your margin in 3-6 months.

I'm confused, if you were long cattle and short pork, wouldn't both positions have gone against you at the break of the news? Oops, you just answered that, ignore this

Please share, I for one am very interested :) If one could measure inertia of sentiment as you call it, wouldn't one be able to find the blow off tops and bottoms in the market, where the inertia is too great and reversal is imminent?

I guess I see your point, while the newbie could be considered an IPO, Abogdan could be considered a stock that's been around for a little bit already and has shown bullish tendencies. Btw, I wasn't being serious with actually doing as I said, and no, you don't need to prove anything. This is a...

LoL, I thought about this too, but then I realized, where would I get a BSE cow??

This is hindsight axeman, you KNOW that the market has been strong for the last 60 years or so, you are not predicting trends... On the other hand, buying now and waiting 50 years, you have a 50/50 chance of being profitable. The fact that the market has had an upward tendency for the last 60...