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Silverware, very funny dialogue really. An opinion: Stubborn has nothing to do with it, unless it is free and clear. Cleveland will move less $ wise, I agree. And less spec yes. But RE is going down across the nation. The reason is macro not micro and has little, in the end, to do...

For those interested in trend trading an asset du jour, here are the normal 4 phases of a commodity cycle in trend (like oil or nat gas). Maybe everyone knows this stuff already. Even my notes on this are old. I think we are in phase 4 for petro plays. At least I'm buying Placements like we...

Silverware, the thing I get a kick out of is the "Stubborn E. European". I'm really chuckling inside ever since I read your post. Nothing like getting beat with an economic baseball bat to Humble one. Nice to see the stubborn grovel. I wouldn't hold dollars or RE. I'm sure you've seen a...

Oh yea, Vhegn posted these ideas in an article, before me.

Hey Moo, that's great that you and Traderbal are already there in understanding this. I know I said I like the KISS system (and this obviously isn't), but in order to apply it I need to be able to see probabilities 2-3 yrs out. My take on this is that China and the US will not be able to...

I hesitate posting my letter by chopping it up. But it is just too long. But very important, IMO. Traderbal got the hint early. We are near a currency war. I'm not a trader. I read macro stuff. So here it is and hope it isn't too dry. This is the big war going on IMO Moo. QUOTE: The...

Moo, cause you have not lived in SB. The weather. And all the good looking women. Woo. It's always been a woman's town. Go to a simple restraunt and see a young woman who looks like an actress. And way more single women than men. A man's heaven.

Moo, I agree with all your points, but I can't step into your question. Dog poop would get thrown at me. RE is not like stocks. People get so darn proud. And home ownership is a status deal here (not for me). Women are the principle buyers. All smart builders design for women. And women...

First, I know how you probably feel about those areas. They are gems. 10s. Used to surf by Hope Ranch. I personally don't get emotional about any of them. A 10 just gives me more options. My Dad's almost always right on RE. He knows values will fall from this point. But he knows they...

Moresize, Thank you, thank you, thank you, very much for shedding some more experienced light on this. Good grief this was getting silly. Monkeys and coconuts. And like OWP and darkhorse, a few wise people. What you and I know is that sellers get house proud. Even realtors do!! And that...

SteveD, I'm semi-retired. I don't need to be "doing" anything. I just like to work. And yes I built my 1st home when I was 18 in 1970. In San Clemente, CA. That's where I grew up. Then to SB. I even wrote in my credentials. You don't need more than that, it's irrelevant to the ideas. We...

I was reading an article and realized I had the same thing in old RE notes on Probabilities. So I dug it out. This is from a physics book originally and transfered by the author I read into RE info. I copied it from that RE book. It speaks for itself. But in stocks, I don't follow its'...

spect8or, I think, I started answering this thread by saying RE doesn't die. It should always go up in the long run. Unless we have a population problem. Old Trader has explained he has no real reason to sell because he is in at a very low basis. He's got little to fear if the RE cycle...

Old Trader, I wasn't appologizing so much to you. I know you don't desire to change and you are one heck of a grouch. And it seems imperative that you think you must be right. It's been said that only the young are really open to learning. I try to fight that within myself. One can get too...

OWP, I was going to forget SB, CA and Mike's post cause of my relationships there. But you are right and Mike hasn't lived in SB too long I'll bet. Mike, my Sis and her husband bought a 1 acre lot with ocean view on San Roque Rd for $12,500. It was during a brutal downturn and before the...

Moo is right folks. Remember I'm a Homebuilder not a person who has a few rentals on the side like an IRA. I eat and find shelter from my Homebuilding earnings. I think this is why my timeframe and caution on this is causing a problem with others. It takes yrs to go from buying land to...

Darkhorse, very well put. RE is not the real problem. It is macro economic trends.

Old Trader you are a hobbyist at RE from where I sit. That is fine that you hold the view that you know RE from dabbling in rentals. OK, I don't presume to know that you were a good floor trader. Maybe you were lousy and I would be better. I don't really care. And renters? What are you...

Old Trodder you are looking backwards. Hope you didn't trade on the floor that way. I assume you are an old floor trader so I give you credit for knowing that field much better than I ever could. RE you don't know like me. I've spent my life in it. So stick to what you know and learn...

Convert you poor soul. You've missed the point, but have all along. I don't expect most to "see" FED actions. If all people did the FED would be transparent and they are not. Do you think they are? Does anyone else here? PPI at .5% for Nov. 1.7% in prior month. Most important, core...