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    Philosophy behind trading Commodity Futures

    Wow, just what I was waiting for, you to validate my intellectual substance. Pretty full of yourself for someone so clueless. I'm sure the two facts are linked. What I am deficient in is patience for people who seem to have never cracked open a history book and seen the results of suppressing...
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    Philosophy behind trading Commodity Futures

    Yeah, here's an opinion. No one cares if you can find "justifiable cause for speculators". You're just not that important and never will be. Get over it and move on with your life because speculators aren't going anywhere. There's a ton of things I don't find "justifiable" (including this...
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    Philosophy behind trading Commodity Futures

    You're assuming that every speculator takes the long side of the trade. Duh, that's not possible, since if everyone is long, who's selling? Your question is so loaded it makes me think you are one of those know-it-all dumbasses who doesn't understand fuck-all about how markets work, including...
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    Who wants to be long on Memorial weekend?

    I get that, but the thing is that it ends up biasing you as a trader and that is the kiss of death, unless that bias is formed due to actual market action, not an opinion about what market action will be. I assume the OP is a shorter term trader because he mentioned a very short-term time...
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    Who wants to be long on Memorial weekend?

    Well, today's close wasn't interesting at all, or at least no more interesting than any other close, so I'm not sure what that implies for the rest of your predictions. This sort of "Hey, here's what I think is going to happen tomorrow" is a sucker's game. Just wait for the market action to...
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    Calculating volatility measure from price movement alone

    I have ended up going this route, more or less. I agree that things don't need to be overly complicated, just complicated enough to matter.
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    Avoiding Bad Trades

    Another way to avoid bad trades is to only trade one set-up. You get to know that set-up like the back of your hand and know that over time, you'll end up ahead of the game, regardless of what happens on any specific trade or even group of trades. If the set-up isn't triggered, I don't trade...
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    Calculating volatility measure from price movement alone

    Thanks, I will do some digging. It looks like I'll need tick-level data.
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    Calculating volatility measure from price movement alone

    I could see how that seems to be what I'm asking for. The real application I'd like to do with this is to compare the volatility of the ES during the overnight session with the volatility during the day session, as a filter for trading triggers.
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    Calculating volatility measure from price movement alone

    Let's say I want to create a measure of an instrument's volatility, is there a way to do that solely based on price movement of that specific instrument? Something like price fluctuations per some defined period of time?
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    Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Joseph Stiglitz says:

    No, I don't want to go back 6 cycles because it's moot at this point in time. Sorry, I don't consider "profit" a dirty word. In fact, I'm all for profits. Health insurers make about 3% profit margins, hardly some outlandish amount. As I said earlier, when the country is this polarized...
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    Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Joseph Stiglitz says:

    Why go back 6 election cycles? Let's just focus on the fact that the health insurers supported ObamaCare because of the individual mandate. Aside from that, it seems odd that, if government spending on medical care was the driver of industry profits, as you seem to be claiming, the industry...
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    Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Joseph Stiglitz says:

    I responded to your alleging that somehow the "corporate power base" benefited from government healthcare spending by pointing out that if it was benefiting, why were so many leaving the program. Google "doctors stop seeing medicare patients" if you don't believe me. So, I consider your point...
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    How to prevent brokers from knowing your strategy?

    But, in the case of the fading of a losing trader, a broker wouldn't even have to worry about reversing the algorithm, just enter the opposite side of the trade when the trader enters and exit when the trader exits. No "algorithm" involved, really. In fact, my guess is that most losing traders...
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    How to prevent brokers from knowing your strategy?

    It's sad to see people dedicate so much time to non-issues. I guess that's one way the market separates the wheat from the chaff, though. I've already shown, mathematically, that 99.9% of what makes a trade a winner or a loser happens AFTER you place the trade, not WHEN you place the trade...
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    Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Joseph Stiglitz says:

    Yeah, and the "corporate power base" is so happy with its compensation from all that public health care spending that more and more participants are choosing not to see Medicare patients, due to drawn-out reimbursement cycles and reimbursements that barely cover fixed costs. If you don't...
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    How to prevent brokers from knowing your strategy?

    I'm not talking about common scenarios, I'm talking about common sense within the accounts of the 5% of traders who don't lose. If 1% of those 5% have their strategy stolen by their brokers, I'd be surprised. Just go on believing what you clearly want to believe despite logic, facts and...
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    How to prevent brokers from knowing your strategy?

    Yeah, OK, if you assumed that the OP was some guy making millions, I guess I can see that. Mind you, the assumption itself is pretty ludicrous, since any making millions probably wouldn't be asking this question here, but whatever. Do you think that Jim Simons' brokerage is just putting any...
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    Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Joseph Stiglitz says:

    The "corporate power base" isn't the beneficiary of Democrat-designed Social Security or Medicare entitlements, which account for the vast majority of the long-term deficit problem. The main argument against the Republicans is that they have not fought hard enough to dismantle those programs.
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    How to prevent brokers from knowing your strategy?

    Since my scenario was also the original scenario brought up in the thread, I'd say that means I was actually on-topic and you were addressing some different topic no one was asking about. I doubt the original poster was Jim Simons or some big fund manager looking to avoid having his strategy...
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