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If TA analysts don't think the market is random, why would the ability to make winning trades on a randomly generated data series matter? The TA analyst would obviously say "The fact that you can't make consistently winning trades on random data means nothing because the market is not...

I think the devil is in the details when it comes to using one strategy across multiple markets. I've been doing that same thing for about 4 months now in 4 markets (ES, CL, Euro and NG) and while there are times when positions fire across multiple markets in the same direction, I've found that...

Study after study shows that coffee has a ton of benefits. One even linked it to reduced chances of cirrhosis of the liver. So you can booze it up and still be OK if you drink coffee. If coffee could kill a person, I'd be dead already. That's how much I drink.

Well, then, I hope you are never in prison doing life without parole. But, if you do ever find yourself in that situation, I hope you can continue to post your thoughts on it here at ET.

Since pot messes with your perception of time, you might even feel like you've lived longer, even if you die sooner. Kind of a paradox.

I will check it out. At first glance, it looks like you need to have a way of predicting where the price will be at a specific time, which is actually not something I've ever tried to do. My system is "If price does this by this time, it will continue in your direction a sufficient distance to...

I think there is a difference between that study and Steve's point, which is that in the study, the students didn't randomly choose to not participate in some trials and they didn't apply a random selection process like a coin flip to determine which way they went when they did choose. Let's...

Yes, the math of factorials makes it impossible to test everything.

In Western logic, it is not enough to simply say "I disagree" as if that were some kind of rebuttal. Not that you owe me an explanation for why you disagree, obviously. I'll look into binary options. From what I've read, those are open to close-based, no? My trades don't necessarily start at...

I put down some facts about my trading a couple of days ago, namely that the average distance I enter the ES at from a pivot high or low is ~9 points and that my average trade is a ~4.5 winner. What you don't seem to understand is that the market is always relative (there's a reason I like...

That's probably your answer right there. If you have a rules-based system, even a manual one (which is my situation), so long as you can pay enough attention to follow your rules, there should be no difference.

Hey, no, I don't use time stops.

Do you understand what an algebraic or mathematical equation is? The probabilities are derived from the successes and failures of the equation to generate profitable trades. Again, asking for "a number" is ridiculous. I am telling you that asking for "an equation" is much smarter and gives...

You clearly misunderstood my post. I didn't say "it can't be quantified", what I said was that the "trend logic" has to drive the quantification on a case by case basis. The quantification is more like an algebraic equation than a single number. Real-time and historical data get fed through...

No, it can't be quantified in the sense of coming up with a single number like you seem to want. But, there is an underlying "logic" to it (that's why I chose my name, because this "logic" is the basis of my analysis). A "trend" is really 3 segments, a beginning, a middle and an end. The...

If I were to define TA, I would say "TA is the application of rules to past price movements and/or other market information with the objective of determining the most probable path of future price movements" I think you have to get the idea of "rules" in there and the idea of "probabilities"...

Fair enough, but that's not a "con", that's just a mismatch between buyer and seller. The guy did say that his offer also had some other features that a firm providing 100% backing might not have. Just seems like a normal sales pitch to me. Throw it out there and see if it sticks. That's...

The 50% win rate needs to be accompanied by an average win size at least marginally larger than the average loss size. Random long entries might get you there, if only because the long-term market bias is to the long side, although even then that might only keep you on pace with inflation and...

I think that one reason it's really important to design your trading strategies for the right timeframe for you is precisely that it makes it easier to "move on" if you know that you won't get frustrated waiting for the next trade. Before I understood this fact, part of the reason I'd hang on to...

Yes, like Soros, to a degree. My reading of Soros is that underlying his philosophy of the markets is the statement "the market is always wrong" and, well, that's what I think as well. There is no "equilibrium". The market always overshoots in both directions. If you can identify the...