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He should NEVER lose! I definitely lost that day...and I don't think I ever made it up:(

THAT is not what YOU said...you said vol goes higher long make $$...anywhoo .......care to answer my question...is your experience "real" world or "book"?

Hey another 3 weeks and he could be whole! Perhaps even 1 pt! Been eating popcorn in the options threads:D

Safilo must actually be Baron just trying to generate some entertainment!

In theory....in the REAL world of my trading experience when I was long an SPX call and IV doubled...market tanked and I lost money....my call did NOT double. Perhaps because there is just a bit more involved. Curious .......is your wisdom from what you have read/studied or personal...

seriously? So if I'm long the SPX I "want" vol to rise? Where do you get YOUR information? Also you can wordsmith "trading" all you want it still is a bet.

Overtrading is always an issue and if we were always RIGHT in our choice of underlying and strat, it works brilliantly to hold until expiration. Many studies have been done that totally disprove your "theory" which is hold to the end. Managing your risk is all about managing your trade and...

The middle line is a TL that began 11/19/12....based on that, the fact that EMG added today and something in my gut...I believe we will trade on or around 1725 Dec 4. perhaps I just need to get something to eat:p

why hold back? share with everyone! then we can all thank you.

Your right xandman it IS a tough trade in this environment. I don't mind being slightlhy neg but ultimately I'm forced to go long delta. Find some products you are positive on and put on a few debt call spreads, may be a calendar. I find I pretty much have to accept a week sometimes two where...

In all honesty I really dont see an economic bubble in our neck of the woods...people are being hired, housing market is stable, new companies are being created and generally the mood is good. Perhaps we are smoking a bit too much weed since its now legal. Rocky Mt High isnt just a song...

article is spot on

thats the "edge" of the bottom feeder retail trader...our size is so small nobody notices :) your right the commissions are the big downside...it definitely has to weigh in the total calculation of p/l

ABSOLUTELY

sle...I didn't get the whole convo...they are pretty good..they look at the MM expected move a usually have some directional bias..but even if the trade doesn't go their way they then will manage it. They of course have more money than God so they can usually get out with pretty small loss...

scary...I actually understood what you said:eek: :D

BFTD?

I give up...Safilo you obviously don't trade for a living.....I'm done wasting my time. I did have one more contribution to the fly discussion however. I listen to Tom and Tony on tastytrade occasionally and in one of their market measures they have done some study on when the IV is above...

He did buy the bull spread...then offset some of the cost by selling a credit spread......THAT'S a fly...

Curious...then Your definition of a fly is -1 +2 -1 ? Most traders "buy" a fly which is what you call short +1 -2 + 1. Which is also referred to as binary in that you DON 'T want to hit the edges you want to land in the middle..... What we may be having here is a failure to communicate...