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People should simply choose to abstain. I mean it's all a matter of choice right? No more relationship problems. No more divorce. No more unwanted pregnancies. No more STDs. All this for merely putting off sexual gratification. Looking at it objectively the list of benefits for the...

The condition you allude to, the host turning over a cup, in your view therefore changes the probabilities? As shown I have adjusted for this by eliminating the probability associated with it from consideration and narrowing the universe of possibilites by a corresponding amount. The only...

Unfortunately I think I get where you are coming from only vaguely. Did you take into account that there is an assumption inherent in the Monte Hall problem that the host/facilitator knows with a certainty where the ball is not and isn't only guessing? Also doesn't eliminating the...

Sure. Tree ____Step1____Step2___Reformulated to match problem A________* 1/2 = 1/6 -> 1/6 -> (1/6)/(3/6) = 1/3 _____1/3 B________* 1/2 = 1/6 -> N/A C________* 1/2 = 1/3 -> N/A _____2/3 D________* 1/2 = 1/3 -> 1/3 -> (1/3)/(3/6) = 2/3...

Ptunic, if you try to illustrate the ENTIRE scenario from the beginning, you will see the direction from which a 1/6 computation was made. Note I am not saying this is the final answer. What I am saying however is that it is perfectly reasonable to use such a calculation in coming up with the...

Fine. I think I already did this but the spacing came out badly. We'll see how it goes this time. T1 T2 * 1/2 = 1/6 -> 1/6 -> (1/6)/(3/6) = 1/3 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6 -> N/A * 1/2 = 1/3 -> N/A...

GTS solve the problem through use of a decision tree properly and you will clearly see where the 16.66% comes in. That the calculation is relevant is the entire point of my participation in this thread. Batman28's methodology is sound. His conclusions, however, are probably not. As for...

There is a way of solving the problem logically without using a decision tree but using a decision tree properly I think requires the 16.666% calculation. You say I copied someone? Who? You say I called someone names? What did I call them? Get your facts straight. When it comes to...

Create a decision tree and use it to solve this problem. That should make things self-explanatory.

Make a decision tree and calculate the probabilities at each stage. It will work out as I have stated. This is elementary stuff. The source of the difference in our answers is we are answering two different questions. The calculations I am presenting involves the entire process. The ratios...

Let's see. What is the ratio between 1/6 and 1/3? Same as 1/3 to 2/3. Do you understand why that is pertinent to the given example and the Wikipedia explanation? Probably not. As for any supposed mental diarrhea on my part I'm sure anyone who has taken basic Statistics can understand the...

Oh brother. Wikipedia is a nice resource but it is useful, believe it or not, to have actually studied the topic too. Maybe you'll understand if you ever find yourself in a job interview asking if you can look up answers on the net.

Went back and read the article again. I see an early paragraph says the chances are 2/3. The phrasing and posing of the problem and the explanation in that portion are unfortunate. It should be clarified. Actually everything I wrote is correct. The perspective is what is misaligned. I'm...

I've read the aforementioned article GTS. Have you?

I get the feeling you are unfamiliar with the use of decision trees in statistics. The chances of you picking the correct cup is 1/3 true but the chances of you picking the correct cup and choosing not to switch as opposed to switching is 1/6. 2/3? How did you come up with this figure...

I'm not a programmer so I'd easily get lost in a true programming language. My familiarity with programming is actually in large part based on my familiarity with trading platform specific "languages". Here's a brief outline of what I've heard and my impressions. Metastock formula language...

I wanted to show to some of the others that how you came up with the 1/6 probability was understandable. Still after reviewing the Monte Hall wikipedia link I think it makes a convincing case that switching improves the odds. Perhaps it will help to think of the switch not in terms of...

I believe batman28 was calculating the odds of each branch of the decision tree 1/3*1/2 = 1/6 1/3*1/2 = 1/6 2/3*1/2 = 1/3 2/3*1/2 = 1/3 1/6+1/6+1/3+1/3 = 1

The more you know the more you know that you don't know. Doesn't sound like intelligence has much to do with being happy.

Detective, RIMM and AAPL might be shorts on a fundamental basis but if past history is a guide there will be a decent window of opportunity to enter a short where technicals will also confirm the down move. Better to go in during those times and take small lumps if it doesn't pan out quickly...