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If I could go back in time and teach myself the most profitable day trading lesson I learned so far, it would be this: Wait for a well-defined trend where price has made at least two new highs or lows on the day and then buy or sell the first break of a 1-min price bar in the opposite direction...

America was built on massive risk-taking where those taking the risk bore the consequences of that risk. These days America is built on massive risk-taking where those taking the risk have little to lose and very often much to gain: http://www.propublica.org/article/the-rise-of-corporate-impunity

Been there, done that, on ES Journal and CL Redux, in ET's old chat room, in Robert Weinstein's chat room, and on Skype for the better part of a couple years. It didn't seem to help anyone in any way; if it did, I invite any of you old trading roomies to let jimmiebarton know just how helpful...

I don't have enough fingers and toes to count the number of times I pulled an order because price was running hard and fast into the level I was looking to buy or sell only to see that I would've been filled within a couple ticks of the turn and ended up with 3x the expected profit.* That's why...

Trading based on the way price moves from point A to point B will lure a trader into every sort of trap and scare a trader out of every sort of profitable opportunity, IMHO.

In a well-defined trend like the chart you posted, the trend line is considered the ultimate value entry because if the trend line holds again, you're in at a superb price for a run to test the previous high or low in the trend. And it's also a low risk entry because if you use a small stop...

Instead of looking for ways to get into trades sooner (jumping the gun), I've found the odds of profitability increase dramatically when you let the market tip its hand (price action signals a potential price swing is starting), then use a limit order to enter at a price that allows a...

There were good PA illustrations on this thread. What happened? Beginner's luck run out? :(

I think it's important to add the above. Otherwise, we run the risk of over-analyzing, second-guessing, and generally ending up underperforming our probability-based plan much like the Yale students who were outdone by rats.

It's always good to know ALL the data behind the statistics. If I told you a drug with dozens of nasty side effects reduces the 5-year cancer death rate by 50%, you'd likely pay dearly to get your hands on it. But if I then told you that the 50% reduction was based on 1 death in 10,000 patients...

The PDL did not hold. If you bought the PDL directly, you'd be out break even when the 2-leg pullback stopped at support and turned back down through the PDL, giving the second mice shorts a clean entry on the break and the anticipatory longs a chance to scratch and reverse.

An uptrend is NOT confirmed during that black arrow move. That's simply a 2-leg pullback to a previous support level in a well-defined downtrend (lower lows and lower highs). If you believe in any way, shape, or form that the price action surrounding that black arrow is a trend reversal signal...

Hi Vic ! Did that trade bring you back to even or are you still in a hole? :D

Too funny: A couple days ago I thought to myself, "Conspiracy theorists would be absolutely doomed as day traders."

Night traders lose! They just do! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/7862246/How-a-broker-spent-520m-in-a-drunken-stupor-and-moved-the-global-oil-price.html :cool:

Hmmm...96.75, pretty darn close to 100.00. Why didn't the price drivers tell us to BUY the 1-2-3 setup or the narrow range breakout???? Those snake oil pumping trading books all the way back to 1935 tell us to buy 1-2-3 setups and narrow range breakouts! :(:(:(

The second mouse gets the cheese. :cool: As for defending a short looking at that chart, jimmiebarton, price is swinging lower highs and lower lows. Price action favors the short side at that point in time. Not until after 15:00 on that chart does price action favor the long side.

What is an out of sample test?

This is the part that no one can do and it's why 99% of traders fail. Even Surf's hedgies eventually blow up because they think they can make a killing and deviate from the plan "just this once" ;)

First I select a setup using eyeball analysis. A setup is a price behavior pattern (for example, in a non-trending enviroment, price came from a swing low, tested the previous swing high, and turned without breaking through that high). I've noticed over time that when this occurs price has a...