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I'm looking at September Fed Funds. The effective rate has been below the target rate by an average of 21 bps up til the 6th. I still haven't seen the data for the effective rate for today, the 7th, but speculate it will be around 4.75%. "Panic days" in the mkt recently have shown similar...

Trader225, just a warning. sounds like you're getting emboldened and fancy "taking on the markets" . your trading seems like you're just loading the boat for the hell of it; and talking up your book, making small inferences (hoping) certain bids/offers make your position look better/worse...

i doubt it; with Canadian mills cutting back ; supply should constrain demand driven concerns sparked by housing downturn

7/10/07 Live Cattle COT Funds; which have been steadily liquidating their net long bought added length and stand long 26,752 vs. 19,318 from last reading. Commercials; which have been gradually covering shorts and getting a bit long cut the trend and took their net long from 9,008 to 2,428...

out of my call spread, liquidated it at 685 pts. loss of 80 pts on the spread. not liking what i'm seeing and recognizing i have no edge here than wait/pray/hope for a hurricane ; which, is pretty dumb. technically the market internals could warrant a bounce; but the non commercial net...

sequoia , it is a bull call spread. Interesting data out of Noaa today: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 12 July 2007 Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during the next 2 months, with...

Key Reversal today in Live Cattle? We did complete a 9 day sequential DeMark Countdown and today's fade of nearly 200 pts from the intraday high points like the market got sold pretty hard up there. Feeders rejected almost off a limit high move as well. Corn didn't have that much of...

seems technical with commercials overly short and perhaps weather driven with the southeast in drought. the buy with cotton around 47-50 was more obvious than it is now at least to me from a fundamental perspective. cotton was coming off loan at a brisk pace and export business was suspect as...

Purchased a Jan 08 130/155 call spread for 7.65 pts. Settled at 7.10. Let's see. Read an interesting analysis that was talking about the strength in the Brazilian Real and how that would hurt Brazilian exports. Also read that Brazilian growers were being paid less than their production...

I would think that trading depression results from the burst of a hope bubble or a concept/market call being decimated by market action. One very liberating thought/question I ask myself while in a position going sour is, "what is my edge". Has my edge been lost? Has the market moved in a...

I've been following the COT for the cattle complex for a bit and have been following the commercials for a bit. The "funds" , or non commercials, according to my work had a statistically significant reduction in their net long position over the last two COT readings. (this 7/06 release not...

cedric nice bottom fishing in juice. at this point i don't have any clear technical picture of the market. fundamentally it seems we are still in for some key data that might point to a much larger (i.e. 170mm box) crop for the 07/08 season. would also seem to me that hurricane activity...

any flows of note? high yield cds getting ugly , cracking a bit

Have any idea how to pair the swap futures off vs. Treasuries? i.e. what the DV01 relationship is? 1 vs 1 ?

mcurto; any flows or trades seen in swap futures? wouldn't swap futures be a clean hedge for spread product like agencies or MBS?

I use Man. I figure they must have another broker execute the trade as I pay a 3.00 "brokerage" fee, so it must be someone else on the NYBOT floor. I usually input limit orders on spreads. Bull call or bull put spreads are usually filled close to settlement prices. Complex spreads don't...

Has anyone had any experience with Strategy Runner? Any cost/benefit comparisons or testimonials much appreciated. Also looking for any feedback from someone who has sucessfuly coded and backtested a Demark system for handsfree trading.

Bot 54/58 DEC 07 call spread for 145 pts last week. Thinking wet conditions in TX and overly short crowd could be drivers. Not quite knowledgeable about talk of "cotton coming out from loan" etc , so maybe someone knows more and can add more fundamental color to this market.

I trade the cattle complex. I would suggest you go to CME.com and read up on Moore Historical Report subscribe to Daily Livestock Report (free) read up articles on www.cattlenetwork.com and track cash cattle trade on the following link...

Since my last post I took advantage of the rally to take some exposure off the trade and ended up selling my 180 call close to breakeven and rolled up and purchased a 190 call. That left me with a 190/210 call spread that I then further opted to turn into a low cost butterfly and sold the...