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I think we are going to get another squeeze in the yen that is going to cause problems for the carry trade

Notice how they are selling the long end of the curve as the yen has rallied today. Somebody is unwinding.

I agree trading in general is very overcrowded and it does seem like a lot of the movement is just one large player pushing the other around. No one is really looking at the fundamentals. Its Im going to ram this guy for ten ticks in the bonds or minis or whatever. As for the big funds, good...

Good post lars. I think a lot of people are going to reach the same conclusion. A lot of funds underperformed the SP in may june july.

What is going to replace the mortgage finance bubble? I want theories.

How are you calculating the spread?

Thats a serious gap down for natural gas. wow.

I have multiple friends that live in PB. I go out there at least twice a year. My friends have had there cars broken into on several occasions.

Yes, we will rebuild lebanon. We're also funding Hezbollah by consuming a quarter of the worlds oil.

Credit growth is contracting marginally. The country has to keep expanding credit or else we are in trouble. We should know more this fall. It would be nice if the rest of the world (asia) did its part and started to encourage domestic demand. Unfortunately they arent going to start until...

Good call risk arb. Will you trade out of your position or hedge yourself in front of tomorrow? Im with Pabst that this is the end of the cycle.

If the fed sees inflation and housing cooling that means assets are going to go down in price. Energy and commodity based companies led the market up. both seem to be peaking. Therefore shouldnt the market fall. I'm skeptical that a rate cut will do anything to stimulate the economy...

I dont understand how a fed pause is bullish for stocks.

Ok. Then could you please offer some more advice. Im sure all us would appreciate it.

Wow dude. Thats harsh. Ive read your journal pretty interesting stuff. You are right. None of us have your math backround. However, I noticed in your journal that you still lose money just like everyone else.

Good luck to everyone. Im just offering an opinion on what I see.

I also hate gaps in both directions and dont like how the vix is at the low end of the range. It tells me there isnt much firepower in the tank

The price action is what Im basing my opinion on. I trade futures and this looks pretty thin to me. I dont see many big sizes trading at the bid and the offer.

If the market believes the fed then we should have a rally that holds up. Im not sure if this will hold up. That leads me to believe that the market doesnt trust the fed.

I think there is a complete disconnect between the markets and the fed. If the market tanks today I think the FOMC cred takes a big hit.