Search results

Do I really have to say it?

I really don't know why we are wasting our time with this guy/thread.

No! He should keep trading, but inform me of the trade 5 min prior to execution.

I really want to thank you for this insightful post. I'm sure we all greatly appreciate your willingness to share your extensive options trading knowledge. I know I learned a lot.

And out at 17.00. That's how you trade flies.

Agreed. My 100-wide Dec fly is neutral to 1075

Here's a fly for PCLN: Nov15 1060/1100/1140 for around 15.00 Should be able to pull a few bucks out of it relatively soon. (I am in the puts from 15.00. I also have the 100-wide in Dec)

Alright, man. No point in getting into an argument. Also, a butterfly can be bearish/neutral/bullish depending on strike selection.

You are correct in that the stock's implied move was greater than realized. Trading a fly in this situation isn't a bad idea, but I would have structured it differently. First, I would have gone with a later expiry (a few weeks to 1 or 2 months out). That way you can reduce your -gamma...

I am not stating that a butterfly spread is a binary wager. I am saying that placing a directional bet on a stock prior to it's earnings report is (assuming no insider info). Also, your explanation of butterfly gains/losses is flawed.

Vol cones are quite easy to build yourself. I don't see any reason to pay for them. In Excel, pull daily ohlc values for a given stock, then simply calculate your vol figures of varying durations using the method(s) you prefer. Finally, solve for percentile ranks given each term, and graph...

Yeah. Depends on where the stock was when you quoted it. Regardless, the entire debit of that trade was gone by today's close.

The fact the vol drops after an earnings report is widely known by the market. The trade was so cheap because it had a very small chance of winning. It's still a lotto ticket, wagering on a binary outcome. If I bought PCLN shares prior to the report, I made more money than your fly. I...

Ok... But how replicable is your strategy. It would be quite difficult to incorporate the stock's drift throughout the day following the report as a valid data point. Assuming favorable price action in order to salvage your trade, doesn't really work as a model input. Perhaps next quarter...

And your fly is now worthless. Are you basing this trade on some sort of directional edge? Or merely trying to maximize your risk:reward? Either way, it's a binary wager.

I am in the PCLN Oct18 900/1000/1100 fly from 54.00 risk (irons) And, SPX Oct4/Oct11 1695 put calendar from 4.00

I also bought YHOO Oct/Nov 31 and 32 strike calendars for around 0.53

So are you.

I have the AAPL Oct18 445/495/545 put fly And the AMZN Oct4 295/315/335 iron fly

Well done. I had the same, but sold it yesterday for 13.00. Oh well.