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Mav, have you found that the more popular, high-profile markets like oil are crowded by traders and have less opportunity than markets that don't get as much attention? Or do you stick with the big popular and highly liquid markets and just trade them really well?

I've purchased several new Dell laptops with their in-home warranty and I have used the warranty service a couple times with good results. After the warranty ends, it's easier to work on a unit for repairs/upgrades when it's a highly popular brand like Dell because you can find many online DIY...

Pure Arb is an HFT/infrastructure play. There will always be opportunities for Stat Arb but they are diminishing with higher correlations as indexing moves most markets in unison.

I heard a presentation from an old timer trader many years ago who said that Welles Wilder was very highly regarded for developing technical indicators like RSI, ATR and others until he came out with this Delta Phenomenon at which point he became a laughing stock in the community.

And don't forget the tax advantages of the e-mini futures options as 1256 contracts. That pretty much locks them up as superior over SPY options.

That's an interesting point. I don't think you have to be the only one taking a position in some esoteric spread to be successful. There is probably some balance of needing enough market participants to join your position who propel it to move your way, versus too many participants in a...

I haven't traded options for a long while but when I was selling premium I found that 45 - 15 DTE was optimal for theta decay and avoiding the gamma risk less than 15 DTE.

The increasingly popular "smart beta" ETF's are rebalanced quarterly based on some "smart" factor that is fundamentally or technically based. Most traditional "dumb beta" ETF's are capitalization-weighted. Here's the rub: In some cases, the rebalancing of these smart ETF's can change the...

Yes, indeed, I use this extensively and it also provides the spread margin, although that feature could be improved to specify margin requirements for both trading hours as well as after-hours in the same display. The key point that bone confirmed is that you don't create any obstacles to...

IB.

Bone, I recall a post you made some time ago (years ago?) where you mentioned that your crew also likes customized spreads where you trade creative combos. In this case, you cannot always use an exchange supported spread because you're doing something unique (or at least uncommon). Any...

Now that's a teaser!

... and you lose all your money ...

Select markets for your portfolio that are uncorrelated with each other (correlation as near to zero as you can find). Keep in mind that two markets with zero correlation will still move in the same direction 50% of the time (most people don't realize this) and they might be more likely to move...

Well said. The edge is in the algorithm, not the processor.

That's a fair counterpoint. Whether the increased volume caused the runup in prices or the other way around is open for interpretation.

Roger's book, Hot Commodities, was published in late 2004. Check a monthly chart of Open Interest in oil futures and post back with your observation. Don't forgot the "lol" with your next post.

He did more than predict the boom, he caused it. His book, along all with the interviews he gave to the financial press to promote his book, raised awareness of commodities as an alternative asset class. Long-only futures funds piled in and ran up energy prices beyond any physical...

Long term profitability is more likely with a portfolio of diversified trades.

Yes, indeed. Cointegrated pairs often experience a price "jump" which is sometimes referred to as a regime change or decoupling. The portion of the price series with well behaved cointegration usually exists only for a finite period of time where you make your money. Then it breaks down and...