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The contango in the oil futures curve is currently moderate and doesn't appear to offset more than carry costs. It does not look steep enough to attract long term speculators who buy and store the physical. Which brings us back to my original question ... why isn't there any reflection of...

Analysts at Morgan and Goldman are talking about oil (currently about $30) going down to $20. If the futures curve for oil reflects the opinions of prominent analysts, then it would be backwardated. But the curve is in contango (higher prices going forward in time). So there is a disconnect...

Please suggest who is good in this space? There are plenty of reports/blogs which opine on energy price forecasts, but who has a good track record?

This is a good lesson when prominent high-profile traders like Steve Cohen (and his team) are caught doing insider trading. Cohen is very wealthy, he can afford the BEST infrastructure and trading talent that money can buy, and yet he still resorts to insider trading. Why? Because there is no...

If convergence/divergence makes no difference to you, then you are really trading it as a pure trend/swing setup. My initial reaction is your approach is contrary to the structure of a butterfly, which is mean reversion (MR). But on reflection, your strategy aligns better with the price...

If I understand correctly, your approach offers both a setup (the divergence of the fly from its mean) plus a trigger (your proprietary trend/swing indicators). Very good.

Bone, always enjoy your charts, just catching up on these now. Butterflies are generally a mean reversion strategy (the body of the fly reverts to it's position between the wings). But your posts sound like you are swing trading these positions using trend indicators on multiple time frames...

Baron, please add 2-Factor Authentication to the list. (just kidding ;))

All those old coin books and the industry newsletters are still good for reference but eBay has become the modern vehicle for dynamic price discovery of collectibles. You can search and find 90 days of transaction history to see completed sales and prices for any item (this is a free search...

Apparently, this index is updated daily. Is there any intraday index or indicator that would provide a similar measure of the tail skew on a real time basis?

Not prepared to sell & move anytime soon. What I'd really like to do is sell a LEAPS call on my property, but I haven't found an exchange for that :D

Now that we are in a full-blown real estate bubble again, any suggestions on how to extract or at least preserve the gains in my property? I don't want to refinance with a cash-out loan because that will just make me a debtor. I hate to see all this inflated housing value just disappear with...

Just watched this ... fascinating ... thanks for posting it!

If you are buying the near month contract and rolling, doesn't the repeated roll into contango offset gains on the price trend?

One of the huge changes in coin/currency collecting in the past 15 years is the Collector-to-Collector transactions on eBay. Before the internet/EBay, if you wanted to sell items in your collection you would go to your local coin shop and only get dealer prices. So your items would have to...

Words of wisdom spoken by someone who did not die in his sleep.

When precious metals prices increased (going back to the 80's), the intrinsic metal value of the coin exceeded its numismatic value making investable coins more of a commodity play than a collectibles play.

I found the old Toshiba laptops would overheat. Had less to do with the apps load and more a symptom of poor ventilation and fan placement.

Thanks for posting this. I thought the limitations of an SSD applied to the early generation units and they had this solved for the current models.

Why do they have a rotational drive alongside the SSD drive?