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It's a different subject, but I found that it's the stupid personal decisions that end up driving my spending and, subsequently, my desire to make money. The best example is how having two big dogs (I have two Central Asian shepherds) changed my life and impacted my financial habits. I have...

Actually, if you count purely by the percent of people making these wages, 250+ is not bad. See here: http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/netcomp.cgi?year=2009. 250k does not buy you much, thats for sure, but still, fairly small number of people in the US is making this much - just about...

Yes, and chances are they are not going to be of interest to anyone ever at all (not in regards to BM, but most other things). A typical issue with a lot of scientists is "when you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail". NT has made "epistemology of randomness" a science somehow (as...

Well, it would appear that the market is consistently proving him wrong. That, or he is a much worse trader than he is a writer.

Yeah, I trade a different asset class (rates) so I don't really believe much in any sort of vol prediction (use EW vol,but mainly to check if current implied vol is consistent), but don't use anything more complex. In rates, events (eco announcement, auctions ) seem to be effecting vol more then...

This is by far one of the most interesting discussions on options trading I have ever seen. Really rich on personal detail. In any case, can we get back to the point in question - OTM calendars. Does anyone use some sort of model for the responce of forward implied vol to the change in...

I don't like Taleb just like I don't like most pundits. He is not really interested in making sound economic predictions but rather keeps saying outrageous things that would attract the attention of the media. What is the great message he's sending across? Is is news to me (or anyone) that...

I traded for a couple big evil banks before and now am running a portfolio for a largish hedge fund, so my view on this might differ from a retail trader. Personally, I think that trading is a shitty job that, unfortunately, pays very well. I like the intellectual aspect of being a book...

I was saying that _at least_ he should do that. You can make yourself a more complete model that would include a variety things like level of the underlying, current risk premium etc and go as complex as you want. I do a bunch of things in addition to the above but that's the secret recipe that...

Out of curiosity, do you believe that spooz skew is sticky delta? Cause I've looked at it a lot and it feels ver much sticky strike to me - fixed strike implieds are far less volatile then fixed delta, at least historically. The skew already compensates for the vol increase in a sell-off and...

Actually, I got a different first name :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A5t5_O8hdA On a different note, for really short dated calendars, how do you evaluate an effect of economic announcements etc?

Well, not sure if one can have a predictive model for anything. But you do have to at least evaluate how does forward implied looks vs historical levels of implied vol, how does front implied compare with recent realized vol and how do the strikes compare with recent ranges. A fairly simple...

This is bullshit, as atticus pointed out. (a) The only reason why this strategy (like any term structure trade) could have any profit potential is if you are locking in implied vol differential at good levels. It would be interesting to hear what parmeters you look at when evaluating these...

There is a number of way you can structure these guys, you could do them gamma-neutral in which case this is a pure forward vol trade. This is a pure vega trade and there is very little dependence on the realized vol. You better be sure you like to own that option in 1 week. You could do it...

As I understand, you are looking to sell some forward variance (a nice testicular move, man!). You can either call your friendly dealer for some Nikkei variance swaps (I suggest DB or Calyon). As an "institutional" alternative, you could replicate it yourself, using a fairly small set of...

Dude, newsflash - Queens, State Island and the Bronx are all part of the New York City.

I just did...oh my God, where can I buy the same stuff this guy is consuming?

There is a great book for you to read: The Great Wave : Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. It will dispel this and many other illusions about the monetary system, gold etc.

(1) No. Index desk and single stock desks are separate desks. (2) Number of ways, but none of them via perfect replication. Frequently it's just passive flow on exotics desks, since most of single stock business is short vol while index exotics is generally geared toward index products...

Before having any deep thoughts: (a) Learn about repo market and how forward price of the bond is calculated from the current price and a repo rate (b) Learn and understand the concept of delivery basket, different kinds of CTD optionality and how that effects pricing Assuming you have...