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S&P is fairly valued in a forward operating V shaped recovery earnings scenario otherwise we are going down hard

CIT had $75b in liabilities and it seems its failure would not be a big deal. $500m in liquidity needs is nothing

Here's why I dont beat myself too much over my put buying in late Mar/Apr which resulted in large losses(But that never threated my networth considerably because with options you are paying someone to be your risk manager) -The stock market is in a secular bear market(valuations tend to drift...

CPI negative, Core CPI yoy 1.5% and the trend is down. Just got to laugh of all the folks talking about exit strategies

Back in the black for the year. My fed futures position is making my PnL quite swingy. Yet I'm still considering more adds(you are supposed to add to winning trades right?). Of the few people whom I pay some kind of attention to their opinion who are saying fed raises(Alan Blinder, Gartman) are...

If this happens it will be probably in the 'beginning in 2012' sort of BS

Or maybe bill gates just had an overdraft. $500m in this financial world doesnt look much

Are you referring to the ~$500m in secondary borrowings? Doesnt seem much

Bloomberg must be on the green shoot pipe, there is just no way Berkshire is not marking their stocks to market, they must have been referring to private equity they hold

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atzD_PE8k9Lc "Berkshire told the Securities and Exchange Commission that it wrote down stocks when “there was considerable uncertainty in the business prospects” of companies. Berkshire didn’t write down equities when “in...

lol. So if the fed had not lowered rates then the GLOBAL real estate and credit bubble would have a perfect soft landing, GDP would've been flat and no one would lose a job? You cant make this stuff up

Libor-OIS Spread Drops to Greenspan’s ‘Normal’ Level http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWmnD6HnAqnc I'm not sure this is 'normal', most of the banks in the libor market have a quasi explicit guarantee that they will not fail. I'm not sure there should be a spread at...

Operating earnings is not balooney at all. Yes its earnings before bad stuff, but guess what, bad stuff usually declines once a recession is over, so it DOES provide a good view of what is likely as the SP500 normalized earnings will be Same thing with the core CPI, the CPI hyperinflationists...

More 37 paranoia from an ex-policymaker http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a7013d8-86b7-11de-9e8e-00144feabdc0.html Faded Tiger again for the PGA, have a feeling I will lose this one but laying less than 2-1 is just too good to pass up

I increased the fed futures bet after the statement which was not as hawkish as expected(it was a bit hawkish but it seems that the market antecipated that and the contracts rose as a result) Since the crisis began I had made a few big bets -Short MBI(MBIA Inc, back when it traded at $33!) 10%...

Correlations are too high, if you want to play that theme whats wrong with shorting the stock market

Actually it wasnt the acknowledgement that was the contrarian piece, it was the removal of the 'The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters,reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization', as soon as...

FOMC calling bottom? "the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out." This reminds me a bit of of when in June 2008 the Fed decided to 'acknowledge' that energy and commodities were going through the roof with 'However, in light of the...

Same thing happened with commodities in 2008H1. The 'contrarians' by Jan were thinking "I cant go long this thing, everybody and their mothers is buying gold, silver and oil, this is stupid and will end up badly", commodities had gone up every year by double digits since 2002/2003 IIRC. After...

I believe I came up with a better method of using contrarian data in forming trading decisions, I might post about it in the future. Usually people use the '0 or 1' approach, for instance http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSYyB7dKTJRQ 'contrarians' would see this kind of...