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The 'global liquidity is abundant' now is the 'green shoots, V shaped recovery is coming', they will have the same fate. However is there a better way of fundamental/macro trading in order to avoid fights with the market when you can?Thats what I've been thinking about lately, I have been...

I wont ever forget John Hussman remarkable discipline and persistence while running his mutual fund. I dont have his data here but IIRC since from 2004 to the 2007 top he lagged the market A LOT. The reason was he kept 'hedging' his portfolio through puts and other techniques meanwhile the avg...

I find it amusing to see some folks now claiming that the fundamentals are not important and those who are bearish for XYZ are foolish, those people are usually long the market. Its like playing hold'em winning a hand with 93 offsuit and saying 'see you idiots. You wait for a good hand you are a...

When he will admit the US is screwed for the next generation? Apparently for him absurd debt to GDP ratios, higher taxes, more government, more regulation , more inflation wont impact the country long-run potential. He is even willing to put all his networth in a frigging bank stock

Today I asked Caroline Baum from bloomberg if she agreed with my theory that the fed cant raise rates while still claiming 'unusual and exigent circunstances'. She got back at me now saying she agrees and will write a column tomorrow about it. I look forward to it, she is probably the best...

I just sent an email to all this sites, we will see what they say

Imagine if there is no build this Q, this market might go into a free fall

Alan Greenspan is suggesting inflation goes to 10% if the fed fails to raise rates and unwind its balance sheet in time. It goes to 3% for a while if they do http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14214898

It seems that a ton of people are betting on this. I heard that funds like pimco have tons of corporate contacts so they can check how things are going in real-time. Buffett can do that too. Does anyone here knows if this is really happening and how big it is?

heh, I'm heavly long the mid 2010 expirations, now if they only cut those interest on reserves to zero... I'm hoping Obama appoints Janet Yellen, I might open a wheelbarrel factory in China and get rich

Credit standards are being tightened even more http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/200908/charts.pdf Once those charts reach a net of 0, it only means that standards are flat, it will take a long time with standards in the net loosening side to actually get the credit growth...

Banks dont want to lend and people dont want to borrow http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/200908/charts.pdf

Looks like Cuomo governor campaign is running quite well

I totally can see this market turning around and posting new highs, however after doing my homework here and coming up with all the arguments, if this market doesnt put a significant correction(20% or more, 33% for financials in a beta ajudsted basis if my math is right) within the next 4-6...

Fed just extended the TALF "To promote the flow of credit to businesses and households and to facilitate the financing of commercial properties, the Federal Reserve and Treasury approved extending TALF loans against newly issued ABS and legacy CMBS through March 31, 2010. Because new CMBS deals...

A suppose another argument is -"Government stimulus will keep coming, unemployment benefits, tax cuts, government spending,etc. This will boost GDP and spending". The problem here is that state and local spending is offsetting part of that. Some of the federal spending are wasteful, so I accept...

Whats the bullish argument for US equities here?Here are a few ones -"Trendfollowing, this market has been going up and up, this wont stop now" I cant much against this but this rally has beaten 1929-30, so its old and tired by historical standards, risk-reward is totally shifted to the short...

Add one more reason to the avalanche of arguments on why the fed wont move rates soon(6-12 months) CPI inflation highly tied to housing through owners equivalent rent. Core CPI is 40%(!) OER http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aXyAah_.vDac As the rogoff study shows it takes...

Interesting data from John Hussman "Similarly, the price-to-revenue ratio on the S&P 500 at the end of recessions has been about 40% lower than it is today, and has been lower still at the actual bear market trough. The same is true of valuations in relation to normalized earnings, even though...

This might be a good guide for whats coming for US equities. Shangai Comp Index: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_eKH-tiSXFbc/SokeGNmZbGI/AAAAAAAAFpQ/B6WZvelKMys/s1600-h/shcomp.gif Given this, if this futures sell-off persists through the opening I'm going to buy some financial puts and increase my...