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Believe me, I really want to get bullish in risk assets and say all the bad things are over. Then I will just load up in commodities for years, I wont even have to think(except which call to buy, which ETF is better). If equities and the economy are in a sustainable bull run then the secular...

Remember CROX?This is the CROX stock market, we are headed to a massive earnings miss if a V shapped recovery does not occur. Thats why I'm insisting in staying bearish, 4% growth last happened in 2000(it didnt even happen in the boom of the 'liquidity' years 2003-2007), and 4% growth will be...

This one is so obvious even the fed is getting it right. Not the stock market though http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lockhart-sees-frustratingly-slow-recovery-2009-08-26

FRE is coming back to the levels at which I ADDED to my short position last year(then Paulson and Lockhart moved in sending them to 0.70c), this rally is getting to insanity levels, contrarian signals galore. CBOE reported the lowest relative equity put/call ever, percentage stocks over 200 MA...

Please, its not like the government can beat the market, everything is rising, equities, debt, whatever. Any fool whos long is showing a profit. Lets look at this again in 1 year and see how they are doing

Home prices are doing better(so far) and unemployment worse, a wash, so it seems that the more adverse scenario was the baseline and is currently happening

Still long those ZQ Feb 2010, the spread now is 13.5bps so I'm thinking of taking profits. Then rolling over a few months down the curve. I'm not truly worried about whether the contracts have positive expectation(as you seem to be) I was worried about being right and get shaken out by the...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124986234040818217.html 'Since the 1970s, the Fed has waited 14 months, on average, after unemployment topped out to tighten the screws on the economy.' Its possible that this time around it will take even longer because we had a secular decline in inflation...

Now that I'm long Dec 2010 eurodollar calls, I'm taking quite a bit of fed hike risk However even if the fed hikes once(to 0.5% fed funds with a 15bps 3m libor spread over overnight fed funds, I assume a low spread because the fed would not raise in case libor is unstable), I still almost...

How can a company going bankrupt with negative networh, earnings and cashflow get out of trouble giving stuff for free?

If I understand these correctly, they are SUPPOSED to keep changing from premium to discounts as people change their views. You are trading people's housing expectation and not necessarily house prices or the case shiller index

For those who dont want to blow $1,500 a month. Reuters?I'm mainly interest in real time market data for all kinds of obscure markets and realtime news

I'm also long the fat talish scenario where the fed stops paying interest on reserves(this one actually seem likely) then starts to tax reserves(negative rates) to encourage lending. If the core CPI keeps falling this seems possible, in that scenario those calls will go to the moon, do a...

I do expect libor to go up at some point, that could very well happen because TARP might run out of funds, bank earnings will dissapoint(Even Bove is saying banks are going to lose money), credit spreads should widen. But the Dec 2010 GE contract only cares about the libor in the last trading...

And the most important thing I'm increasing my reward by DECREASING my risk. ZQ contracts are highly levered(they are worth $400k each but the margin is only $1k), my gross leverage was running at 60x(FNM levels, although that surely overstates the risk), I had blowup risk in case bernanke...

Just made a dramatic change in my portfolio. I'm taking profits in most Fed Futures(still keeping a few in the Feb May zone for the unusual exigent arb) but I'm buying GE(CME eurodollar) calls! I had just said I didnt like eurodollars because of the libor component and I still dont but Fed...

People pay 2/20 to be long XLB XLE, brillant :D

What money printed are you referring to?Bank reserves are not really money, only if they get lended out they can create inflation. M1 and M2 growth YTD has been weak, specially M2(less than 3% annualized YTD). Inflation expectations are not out of line(10y breakeven is less than 2%, surveys dont...

Chances are the fed will disclose this information with a lag. Just like they do with the FOMC transcripts(5 year lag for these). So the conspiracy theorists who are trying to create widespread bank runs might want to calm down before fist pumping

Bernanke reappointed. Its probably not THAT big of a deal, he changed the voting order of the FOMC. Greenspan would vote first and few would have the guts to go against him, now Bernanke is the last so his leverage is dimished. Still, back in Sep 08 he did made a speech urging the FOMC to ease...