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The USD has been going down ever since it was allowed to float. These declines are normal

Looks like Henry Paulson memoir will come out next month('On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System'). I might buy this, I have a theory you can get an edge in hugely liquid markets by reading policymakers books. Bernanke's book certainly helped(and still...

ES Chart Daily Market came back in the close(What a huge surprise) ES still havent lost that trend line nor the 20MA

You argued for a gold correction based on a broad sell off in commodities, that happened but gold came roaring back. Now you are expecting an almost 40% decline based on what?

In a world where robots can produce everything so easly and effectively you earn your meal by buying your own bot, who them will make it for you. The government, charity and your savings can help you purchase it. Futhermore the people selling bots still need to, watch baseball, hookers, soap...

That is a possibility. If the bots are so advanced and efficient to the point they unemployed most of the population(and apparently cheap because they are being so widely used) , the government(who will be taxing all the bot industry, maybe even with windfall profit taxes) can give loans to...

Let me be clear here, I do have a big bet right now, on fed futures and eurodollar calls. I was referring to times where I dont. Todays intraday action on ES looks quite interesting, price is approaching both the 20MA and a uptrend line that started in the Meredith Whitney bottom. If we lose...

With all due respect nitro, your argument is a bit flawled. Your terrible scenario where robots produce everything and everybody loses their job is actually excellent for the world. Lets say bots start to farm, manufacture, perform surgeries, clean, etc. This would lead to a tremendous growth in...

I've been meeting my 'desire for action' by making small bets. Specially though options, this helps me to continue to camp waiting the big ones

Of course the trick of the big bet approach is to be usually right. But if a trader is not correct more often than not, this big bet approach will just bring the long-run faster, the small bet approach will get him broke too, its just going to take a bit longer In my view the right way to...

Of course one will still make small bets trying to 'pickup' some returns in order to give you room to make the big bet. In 2008 my shorts gave me some gains which enabled me to make a big bet in fed futures in late 2008. In 2009 I tried the same thing, but my shorts cost me money(in particular...

I mentioned a few trades that were shorts, big bets in these need probably to be smaller than otherwise(By some 50% or so). Niederhoffer talked about this in his book, you not just have the the broker commission, the MM big ask spread but you also have the historical risk premium(10% for stocks)...

I'm growing convinced that the best way to produce big returns consistently is to use the 'big bet' approach while favoring assets with positive risk premium(long equities, debt, commodities, fed funds during recessions) I suppose some people make great returns by making a series of small bets...

There you go Ivan, lots of work for your weekend http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/search.php?s=&action=showresults&searchid=3103572&sortby=lastpost&sortorder=descending

Paul Miller has a 50c target in FNM and FRE, says shares have almost no value. Says you cant possibly know what will be the business model of fnm and fre when they try to get out of conservatorship, they are on the hook for $100b each http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1231093207&play=1...

Lmao. This bronte guy and I argued last year whether it made sense to short FNM and FRE at $16, he kept saying it was a bad idea. I couldnt see how a company levered 120-1 could possible not suffer a 'margin call' and fail as a result, whether the company was actually insolvent was irrelevant...

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-krugman-should-be-worried-about-the-monster-deficit-2009-8

Personal Income - M/M change 0.0 % Core PCE price index - M/M change 0.0 % Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 1.4 %(prior 1.5%)

I suppose its ok for Ivanovich to move all posts from people who says position size ought to be set by Kelly criterion, that is if he considers that 'silly'

So all the strategies and opinions which Ivanovich considers 'silly' ought to be moved to chit chat?There will be a hell lot of threads being moved, pretty much almost every BuyLowSellHigh thread