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Precisely because gold is not supposed to be rising here and no one expects to keep going, this could be that time the Bear Stearns high could be tested. Of course I'm just speculating here

USD flat since early June yet gold is on the $1k march again. I've been linking gold since late 08, mainly because as a play on QE and as protection against devaluation(which Bernanke saw as the solution to the 30's deflation) Most of my assets are in USD, I use gold and silver in my basket to...

ISM services show -90% of the economy still contracting -Inventory rebuild nowhere to be found, it actually got worse(from 47 to 43) -Employment still contracting -The ISM Non-Manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index in August registered 67.5 percent. This is 5 percentage points higher than...

That cycle it took the core CPI to jump from 1.1% to 1.9% yoy and the CPI from 1.7% to 3.4% yoy for the fed to put the first hike and there wasnt a credit crunch The last crunch it took five years from the first cut to the first hike(and the core CPI never dipped bellow 2%, it stood above 3%...

Jim Grant is a Fed basher, those people tend think their opinion on what the fed SHOULD do is what they WILL do. Did Jim grant predict fed funds would tumble from 5.25% to 2%?I bet he didnt, meanwhile Bill Gross and Paul Mcculey were back in Dec 2007(when the rate stood at around 4.25%)...

In a few years this will read like ECB Trichet: 雨が降りそう（あめがふりそう） ECB Trichet: 音楽（おんがく）!

The four-week average of seasonally adjusted new claims rose 4,000 to 571,250, the highest in eight weeks http://www.marketwatch.com/story/initial-jobless-claims-down-4000-to-570000-2009-09-03 Gold approaches $990 an ounce as dollar weakens...

The biggest risk to my trades is this http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aJw8axBDQwa4 However I believe this guy is incorrect on betting on V. He says "L, U never happened, W only once", the problem of course is that he is looking at the US economy only(which hasnt had a...

I am carrying a bit of risk in those calls, there are a few things that can go wrong and they expire worthless, if I'm correct though I will make a lot. The long fed futures up to Jul 2010(when the fed stops using unusual and exigent authorities) exp I consider a less riskier , but I cant...

I'm long the dec2010 GE calls(not related to the stock) from 0.125 3m libor is being manipulated by the government through all the monetary base printing, bailouts and implicit guarantees that no big bank will fail. It now stands at 0.33%(100-0.33 = 99.67 likely expiration for the eurodollar...

If suppose if they start to give away production for free the PMI will break 100

Gross says this is the new normal, in order to do 'macro analysis' you will need to predict what the government will do because they controlling a bigger share of market outcomes(even more in the future). This is why I need to buy Robert Rubin and Hank Paulson's book, so I can understand better...

Gross makes a surprising comment on CNBC -30y bond might be a buy, we are considering it as the US economy could pull a double dip in 2010 -US economy ex-government is lousy(its probably still in a strong recession), this means fiscal/monetary support not going away anytime soon...

I remember reading on market wizards that Bruce Kovner thinks its an even stronger signal when a technical breakout happens for 'no reason'. "If everybody believes there is no reason for corn to breakout and it suddently does the chances that there is an important underlying cause are much...

Interesting action on gold Whats surprising is that commodities have been weak, oil is almost breaking a support level. The fed has not given any major dovish statement, if anything they are pulling back on UST QE. The american dollar has been quite weak but it really hasnt plunged much...

The dove argument would be 'Since inflation tends to fall during first year of recovery its one thing to have a recovery with CPI at 3% and core CPI at 2.5%, its another with CPI negative and core CPI almost negative, the fed might have to for a significant uptick in yoy inflation before doing a...

Heres another argument for the Fed to stay low for longer(I might have listed more than 10 arguments so far) http://www.zerohedge.com/article/full-blown-deflationary-episode-coming Deflation taking over already. IIRC inflation rates tend to fall in the first year of recoveries(it lags, I...

Switzerland is becoming the 51 US state

Even the mega rich investors love to chase performance

I have a better idea, instead of buying XLF puts today and risking a green(shoot) reversal I might as well wait for SPX to break 980 support level in a intraday basis then increase my position. I get the additional benefit of the fact that my existing XLF puts will be winning trades by then, so...