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Because I lived through 2008 and I have been around finance long enough to see something fishy when I see it. When I look at the BTC rates offered by TS Crypto and open protocols like AAVE and Compound and I look at rates offered by Celsius, I know they are doing something shaddy. In banking the...

I'm sure there is an impact of monetary policy in all of this chasing of NFTs, as people are fleeing cash and devalued investments. But regardless, there is a sound fundamental reason for them (people like owning scarce things) as well as a tactical reason (financial repression by the Fed) so...

I agree with you on bonds, I dont understand the 30y UST bond yield. If anyone can explain to me why they trade there I would love to see it. The 10y/5y I get it, its financial repression but you would think 30Y investors would want more than what they get As for NFTs, for the biggest fan of...

The Fed's has the perfect political cover (and pressure) to let inflation run hotter than normal due to: -The average inflation target with the 'we gonna wing it' framework. They can always say 'we expect inflation to moderate next year', kinda like they are doing now -The employment mandate...

Yes, I dont think they want too high inflation. They want the Dalio's "beautiful deleveraging". Powell wouldn't be able to have any credibility if inflation were to run out of control, but if it run at 3% that would be more defensible. Then they can change how they calculate inflation, change...

The trend already looks unfavorable to the USD: The gainers have been the EUR, the JPY, CNY. Now that the Fed framework has changed making it more costly to hold reserves in the dollar, there is no reason for the trend to reverse. If anything it will probably accelarate especially given that...

PSTH UMG stake is an indirect way to play NFTs. All those artists (like Taylor Swift) will get into NFTs at some point and fans will pay. I'm sure UMG will take their cut

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/money-credit-debt-ray-dalio/ "The debasement of the currency leads it to devalue and have people run from it and debt denominated in it into something else. There is a whole litany of things people run to when money is devalued, including rocks (used for...

The fact that Joe Biden is president and the Powell is up for reappointment early next year also should be a factor. If Powell were to even hint at hawkishness he would be fired. Also, Biden will only appoint woky doves from now on (to the board of governors) so little by little the Fed will...

So, about that US dollar bull or bear debate. I think I'm starting to get more confident that the bears will win. The chart above shows what issue that the Fed faces. Corporate leverage went UP after 2008 up until Covid, and then during Covid and it went up AGAIN. Households and State and Local...

I am in a small scale but I bought my GPU years ago. I'm not sure it is a good idea to buy GPUs now for that purpose. They are trading at very high prices, furthermore EIP1559 (ETH upgrade) will change the rewards miners get, which should decrease profitability. Also, when ETH moves to proof of...

In a lot of ways Celsius looks worse than BlockFi. The BTC interest rate offered is higher and they lost their custodian, thats unheard of. There is what is said and what is not said, what they custodian didnt say is probably way worse than what they did say. Celsius slogan is 'unbank yourself'...

"Celsius doesnt to that" https://www.coindesk.com/custodian-prime-trust-cuts-ties-with-crypto-lender-celsius "Custodian Prime Trust has given cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius Network 30 days to get off its platform, citing “red flags,” people familiar with the matter said. " "A person...

Here is some interesting data: BTC last 100 day volatility: 76.8% ETH is 113.94% LTC 125% XMR 124.9% BCH 138% DOT 139% DASH 143% NEO 151% XLM 114% ZEC 153% So BTC has lower volatility than pretty much all coins, even coins that are a fork of its own code And BTC did had bigger volatility...

I say all of this but I have 10% of my assets in gold. I never go all-in on any particular view. So I own the asset that is probably being disrupted but I also own the hedge and in bigger amounts. So if BTC wins, I lose some in gold but make a lot in BTC. If gold wins, I end up with a net loss...

Another example, horses were domesticated around 3500 BC but when cars came along it didnt really matter how long people used that for transportation. Cars decreased the demand for horses for transportation and that never recovered. Yes, horses are still used so the Lindy Effect still holds but...

I would have to agree with this, its hard not to conclude that Gold is being disrupted. Thats what I said about the Lindy effect last year (something that Taleb is taking comfort on to think Gold is fine). The effect says nothing about investment returns but only about existence. So yeah, gold...

A key part of the Taleb anti-BTC thesis seems to be high volatility at higher market caps. But I think that is a key flaw on his argument. In my career as a day and swing trader I have noticed that retail driven stocks are much more volatile and inneficient than institutional driven stocks...

Interesting comment by money historian Niall Ferguson "One of the lessons I had in recent experiences is to listen to your teenage children because its probable that they at 15 understand better than you at 50 what is going on in this new and rapidly evolving world. So I kind of learnt me...

https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Abstract/9000/Ivermectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.98040.aspx Another meta analisys show that Ivermectin is effective at reducing deaths of Covid19 "We assessed the efficacy of ivermectin treatment in reducing mortality, in secondary...