Search results

If anyone else is following along, I've found these 2 links: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variety_%28cybernetics%29 http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Books/AshbyReqVar.pdf second one is a 13 page pdf on applying Requisite Variety.

I'm having a bit of trouble because Bayes theorem is based on conditional probability, but we haven't established or assumed any reason to think the trades are or are not independent. In trying to see if I've just missed something, I've been playing around with the formula, and a table, but they...

Would you mean, implementing it by skipping some of the system's trades, or reversing the direction of some of the trades?

..

Hmmm, I had a couple of questions -- Is it necessary, to apply Bayes theorem, to assume that the OP's 65% winning rate has wins randomly distributed throughout the time series, and continuing forward? In the material I've studied on Bayes theorem, the examples usually have conditions...

Thanks -- that should give me a number sufficient for what I'm looking for, and especially great it's just just one command.

Another idea I had -- I have QT Octave, perhaps I could make 3-D mesh plots of the 2 tables, then see how much the match / differ. Is there a 3-D regression, like linear regression but in 3 dimensions? thanks

Is there a correlation measure for two tables of data? My 2 tables are stop x limit, with data from 2 separate procedures. I would like to find out if they are related. One option I could do is find the regular linear correlation row by row. But if there was a better statistic measure, I'd be...

Hello NoDoji, thank you for the detailed response. It sounds like a big part of the gift and talent is also recognizing the environment or conditions to validate setups or warn against setups that will fail. My next step will be to work on figuring out how to recognize chop vs non-chop market...

Hi Mark, Thanks for the response, I had a vague type of impression or guess there may have been a difference. This helps put the concept into words which makes it more clear.

Hi NoDoji, I am interested in your posts as they note "high probability setups". Honest question: how do you generate an estimate of the probability of the outcome from a setup? For myself, I can get estimates of probabilities from running backtests. I'll skip the discussion on TA/backtesting...

In this gold chart, how do you distinguish if this is a resistance line in a triangle about to break to upside, or if it is forming a down channel, soon to break to downwards to lower channel line? I see this same type of situation forming all the time, but the outcome usually seems 50-50.

I've heard of them, sounds like you have positive feedback on them. The course on chaos looks good, only $70. Other than that, I've found a text book on chaos theory: chaosbook org (free) I haven't had a chance to get to it, but it looks tough with a lot of math. Maybe there's an active math...

I like to get textbooks online and study things I never took a course in. including taking notes and doing the exercises on a lot of scrap paper. It's like getting a do-over or second chance for college. One I started and hope to finish one day is Introduction to Probability, Dartmouth has it in...

....

Hello MarkBrown, thank you for the responses and examples. I am grateful to hear a new way of doing things or new method. In return, I'd like to pass on a quote from the last ET guru who answered my posts to this extent: "Don't wrestle a pig in the mud; the pig enjoys it too much." For now I...

Hello MarkBrown, very interesting. One problem I had with my backtesting software was it would only give results for one strategy on an instrument at a time. So I built my own tool to get the results from 2 strategies on the same instrument and see how they performed together. I've had a...

Ok, and I'll restate it in my own words to be sure I'm on the right track: - data 2 gives the long entry signal, because presumably I've found data 2 leads data 1 by some amount of time - data 1 has the stop or "non-confirmation level" or "relationship no longer holds level" to determine the...

Hello markbrown, thank you for sharing insights and techniques. Reading through the thread, just wanted to verify what I've got from it so far: - have a dual strategy: one for chop, one for trend - focus more on the chop, it happens more often - strategy should be based on a "market...

Interesting, to see the videos and see it in action. Thanks for the link.