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A whole slew of Canadian releases at 8:30 - expect effects of high loonie to show in lower mfg shipments & car sales, higher inventories ... if so, could cause a rapid 100+ pip climb. Then comes CPI and leading indicator on Wed ...

The charts are based on what, a fundamental model?

It was just pushed down to 1.0455 by news of the Rio Tinto/Alcan deal ... may go a bit lower once the deal actually goes through. But really even $38 billion or whatever it was is fairly small potatoes, since much of it will no doubt be a stock swap and Alcan can be bought on NYSE ... besides...

yup, looks like the yen carrion traders are back in business. Took a small long on USDJPY at 122.52, target 123.

Housing starts were off for June as well, often a canary for the rest of the economy. The high-loonie bad news is starting to roll in, I guess. On the other hand, USD is weak everywhere else - EURUSD now over 1.37, GBPUSD 2.02+, USDJPY off 140 pips from yesterday's high, USDCHF under 1.21...

OK. So why would a totally expected, no-surprises move by BoC cause USDCAD to zoom up 40 pips? People say, well, it was priced into the market - but then why did the market move at all? And if anyone had any doubts he was going to do it, then that should have been pushing USDCAD up a bit, and...

ya think it's gonna get that high? Personally I'm having more fun riding the USDJPY unwind.

I think Thursday's and Friday's announcements will be more interesting. Tomorrow BoC is going to raise rates by 0.25%, ho hum, everybody's known about it for ages and it's already priced in. The market might spend an hour or so zooming up and down as pundits read more into the entrails of the...

I worked out the "real" spreads for the major pairs on IB. These are expressed in "pseudopips", defined as (spread/sell price + 2*commission) * 10000. These are a snapshot; they vary during the day. USDHKD 0.18 EURUSD 0.66 GBPUSD 0.70 USDJPY 0.73 EURJPY 0.83 EURCHF 0.84 GBPCHF 0.98...

Here are the predictions from the geniuses at Royal Bank of Canada and Scotiabank, together with Scotiabank's consensus of the experts it polled. Keep in mind that this time last year they were predicting that we'd now be at 1.20 or so. 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08...

I still see USDCAD as oversold. It is where it is because of a string of strong economic figures in 1Q plus M&A encouraged by a cheap loonie. M&A has diminished (e.g. Alcoa/Alcan fell through). Canadians are sitting on a pile of loonies from selling Inco/Falconbridge/Dofasco etc., which they...

seems there are still sellers in the cellar

I assume what happened is that everyone knew today was mega-announcement day, they expected more sparkling results just like the last bunch and bid the loonie up in anticipation, then when the news was disappointing, they dumped it.

However I have discovered a rule that works at least 95% of the time with USDCAD: When I short, it goes up; when I long it goes down. Maybe I could make money selling "inverse price signals". As predicted, the economic data are starting to come in weaker - zero GDP growth in April - and...

It's related to the price of tea in China. Wait a few days and the pundits will tell us why.

Yeah, and just after I'd finally gone long at 1.0650. The gurus as usual will be able to explain it all after the fact - predicting the past is always fun and profitable. Some data on producer and resource prices, both of which fell, but PPI still running at 3.8% y/y & so everyone expects...

Yes, not a good day. The manufacturing figures are surprisingly strong despite the high loonie. Growth is off, but still ahead of the US. And oil is holding in the high 60s. And Dodge is probably going to up rates next month while Bernanke hangs tight. Still, the loonie is way, way over...

BTW, last year this time oil was dicing with $80 and then it dropped to $51 - without a recession - so why is a drop from $70 to $40, especially with a recession, "crazy"?

"How much of a position you control in relation to your account size" is how I would define leverage. Or rather, it is the ratio between the sum of all the positions you control and your account size. Keep your leverage down to 10:1 and you can make a nice profit without exorbitant risk...

I didn't say $40 oil this summer, I said this fall, IF the US goes into recession. $70 oil is so far off the long-term trend line it can't be anything but a bubble, and recessions tend to pop bubbles. When I invoked Bill Lipschutz, his philosophy is that he only trades G8 currencies. And...