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It's not very hard but having a winning system is. Until you do trade simulation. You will know when you got something real.

True for VXX and SDS, not the case with UNG, UNG tracks natural gas, a commodity in a severe downtrend plus terrible contango headaches, a true falling knife.

Now that was informative :)

Can't speak much about VXX and SDS but I've been shorting UNG daily greens and especially weekly greens (these are rare) obtaining a massively high winning percent ratio. UNG is truly fabulous, I love the reverse splits too.

The trend is an animal but soon the typical bearish phase will be upon us past May, at the same time, anything can happen at any given time. Bottomline, take it a day by day, lower your timeframes a bit, not too low, and trade what you see. Answer to the poll was not an option, not a...

If we were talking about a price action entry technique, then I could understand for secrecy but money management ? Eventhough massively important, hardly the formula of cold fusion. Do the words FiboShitLord mean anything to you ?

It's the typical rookie mistake, it's the main reason why so many fail in this business. The necessity to short an uptrend or buy a downtrend to satisfy their psychological deficiencies. Eliminate overbought or oversold from your trading vocabulary because there is no such thing, it's a...

I find it quite funny that you speak of small probability of losing yet you can't even find the proper entry or even proper management. Starting a plan by adding to a losing position does not exactly speak volumes of your conviction and/or market read. What if your first zone is correct ...

Reducing winners usually ends in lower expectancy, not higher. The way you speak about the chop and small winners it makes me realize you spend too much time trading small timeframes. Careful, don't play where the newbies do.

When things don't work for whatever reasons you take your 1x losses like a good scout and continue moving forward without deviating from your good expectancy plan.

That is true if you do it like most amateurs do, do it right and this will rarely occur.

Some serious suggestions in no particular order but equally important. Did not read through the whole thread so apologies if anything has been repeated. * Use lines not indicators, particularly diagonals, not necessarily trendlines although those are useful too, just not in the typical...

Now that would be nasty

Wondered about this all day long, have not been able to find a logical explanation yet.

Yes my trading mostly revolves around these backtests and obviously their fakeouts which got other peculiar characteristics. There's more but I like to keep it simple, not too many timeframes, just quality over quantity. I like to trade hard but not too often, and not very interested in...

You are welcome. It's a matter of styles, we all use different methods, rulers for the methods. I don't think there is one right way but mastering whichever way you choose or prefer. In the end is an art, always has been, I like to use my own brush. Yes that was the importance, studying...

You keep the old channel to determine if the breakout is for real or a head fake as backtests usually develop as important tellling points in the markets. These backtests can occur on the channel formation itself, it's horizontal breakout line point or old formations that you must monitor...

I believe it.

...but broken channels are special, very special :D

EUR/USD 4 hour chart