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  1. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    here we go... report date is posted and APR vols is in the free fall , under 40.
  2. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    got it , thanks
  3. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    ok... heavy buying on KBH March puts today. Riskarb , would you take a hedged entry like short the KBH put (vols at 36) and long the index put (IYR , vols at 17) here ?
  4. I

    naked risk

    And the winner of "energizing bunny" award goes to...
  5. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    IB's option screener ( beta version) shows highest P/C ratio for ticker IYR ( Real Estate iShares) . Housing Starts and Building Permits on Eco calendar later this week , hmmm...
  6. I

    naked risk

    yet ,another thread from Curious George , the motivator of "sum zero?" and " negative expectancy ??". Cannot wait for upcoming discussion of "2+2 , is it really 4 ???"
  7. I

    Not so fat tails

    more than 30% annual gain if one can handle 10/1 negative to positive ratio... Conditions : Buy SPX strangle ( OTM , wings=2.5% away from current price ) , when time to expiration = 5 days. Cost of straddle= 50 cents (on the ask), all profits are based on intrinsic value only , so spread...
  8. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    saw it . Super prediction on vols action , right on the money , riskarb . Today's price action will bring 3 days HV to around 60 , so 55 IV make sense.
  9. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    FFIV is almost at the pick of pre-report APR vols run... Maybe time to short soon.
  10. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    IMDC been bought out by AGN , some kind of complex offer : min 84$ or 0.85 ratio. The mismatch in call/put vols , probably build in.
  11. I

    IV/HV options ranking

    very possible . Which vols is lagging and which one is leading here? In case of rising IV (without scheduled event date) , the HV will catch up after hidden news comes out, when stock moves and owner of short combo lose big on the "overvalue" ratio. besides , which HV to use , 10,20,30d ...
  12. I

    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    be careful here , B. I saw many new comers hitting vols way above 100 before first report. Briefing just posted NYX ( but still unconfirmed) for 4/19
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    Earnings trades

    sorry about it , Neil...No , this stock is in my universe ,this is not a first time I made money on CWTR
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    Earnings trades

    CWTR is up 20% after report , the straddle price is tripled now
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    Vertical Spreads for Aggressive Growth

    cashe and cm2 , no problems ! I just was trying to share another retail trader's opinion/experience. As a beginner , I tried all kind of simple (and complex) option strategies , before I understood that the only realistic way for retail to make many is via high variable prediction ; the rest (...
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    Vertical Spreads for Aggressive Growth

    with answers like that , you are turning other posters away from your thread. Good luck with your trades , I am done here
  17. I

    Earnings trades

    LOL. But I actually took position (long combo) on CWTR , not bad volume and spread is 5/10 cents. You also missed some good volume stocks that reported after your post (MATK , MYOG , LIFC)
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    Riskarb's combo to fly conversion journal

    excellent gamma scalping (long stock+put) on GOOG in the last month , price is moving 30% above standard div (using daily hi-lo). Riskarb , anything else good out there ?
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    Vertical Spreads for Aggressive Growth

    Cashe , how accurate your variables "predictions" (in your case : future price over x time period) are ? They probably should be atleast 55/45 (positive to negative) , before retail even starts using options here. No magic/complex option strategy will help you to make money if accuracy ratio is...
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