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  1. R

    George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'

    I assume Soros is talking his book. I wonder how big his short position is?
  2. R

    It is now time to SELL SELL SELL your GLD (GOLD)!!!!

    My view exactly. The government will produce as much fiat money (i.e., government debt) as it needs to in order to prop up prices.
  3. R

    It is now time to SELL SELL SELL your GLD (GOLD)!!!!

    I still see the same tired arguments (you can't eat gold, or run your car with it) as if you could do those things with green pieces of paper. The same people telling me that gold is in a bubble are the ones who told us the economy was just fine 3 years ago. Gold is volatile and I expect to...
  4. R

    options

    If you own an option you can exercise it at any time, even if it's OTM. Of course, there's no rational reason to do so. (You wouldn't want to buy an asset above its market price, or sell it below its market price.) But you can indeed sell an option without exercising it, and plenty of option...
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    Diversification good or bad?

    GE is a solid company?! The only reason it's not bankrupt is because the government bailed it out with cheap money. I don't want to own any shares when it goes off life support.
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    options

    No, that assumes you hold the option until expiration. Suppose a stock is at $30, you buy an OTM call at $31 for $0.80, and it has a delta of 0.30 and a theta of -0.01. The next day the stock pops up to 30.50. Your call is now worth 0.80 + 0.15 - 0.01 = 0.94. You can sell it immediately for...
  7. R

    Debit vs Credit Vertical Spread

    As everyone else has pointed out, your second example is bullish -- you're betting that EWZ won't go below $65. In theory, if they are priced correctly, you should be able to lose money equally well by buying debit spreads or selling credit spreads. A credit spread that pays you $32 but can...
  8. R

    Any spread trading horror stories for the week?

    My horror stories are for stocks. My short bear call spread on SPX and my short bear call spread on IYT are doing just fine. :cool:
  9. R

    It is now time to SELL SELL SELL your GLD (GOLD)!!!!

    I actually have a large (for me) position in physical gold and silver (and a bit of platinum) that I bought years ago. My plan is to sell it when I see fiscal responsibility return to my government. (That means never. :mad: ) I use gold to store a significant fraction of my wealth. But I...
  10. R

    It is now time to SELL SELL SELL your GLD (GOLD)!!!!

    And another 500 TV ads per day make it obvious that now is the time to SELL YOUR GOLD 4 CA$H! Seriously, I expect that gold will get back to $950 or so. Then it will go back up to $1300 a year later.
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    Which broker has the best service in terms of execution and commision rates?

    For options I like Interactive Brokers. The execution is no worse than any other broker I've tried and for retail traders the commissions can't be beat. On IB I can do some types of option trades that wouldn't even be feasible with other brokers because of their high commissions. IB charges...
  12. R

    T-Bond yields will be low for years, even if the Fed has to buy 99% of each auction?

    The Treasury can issue as many bonds as it wants at low interest and the Fed will just snap them up, paying with printed money. The U.S. government spends the money it gets from the proceeds of the bonds. Therefore, so long as the Fed never sells the bonds it buys this is exactly equivalent...
  13. R

    Here we go again... pushing up the debt ceiling.

    Every congressman except Ron Paul believes we can deficit spend our way out of this recession. It worked so wonderfully well for the Japanese, after all.
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    Investing Tips

    Well, this web site is for traders, not investors. So the first thing you need to know about investing is the difference between that and trading. Nobody invests in forex or stock options, but many people trade those assets. Investors look for strong balance sheets, ample cash flow, and...
  15. R

    THIS will SELL you on OEX weekly options...it has me...WOW!

    I've made millions in hindsight, myself. Just this year in fact. Unfortunately, in foresight I'm more likely to lose thousands.
  16. R

    best way to use time decay during long weekends

    Certainly the best answer to this question.
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    risk of short puts on leveraged etfs

    As a follow up to my claim about leveraged ETFs being a terrible long term hold, let's look at two cases, one theoretical and one real. Suppose we have an ETF with this price action: 100 -> 105 -> 100 -> 95 -> 100 -> 105 -> 100 -> 95 -> 100 -> ... That it, it oscillates forever in a...
  18. R

    HOTT - Call Buyer

    Did I get that right -- someone bought both $5 and $7.50 calls, not 5/7.5 call spreads? It's like he could make up his mind - ITM or OTM calls?
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    Firms that allow naked options selling

    In an IRA you have to have cash to fully cover 100% of the cost of buying the stocks at the strike price when you sell puts. Basically you can't do anything in an IRA that could potentially cause you to owe more cash than you have in your account. For example, in my IRA I can't sell naked...
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    It's much better to buy slightly OTM options than ATM ones?

    Well, I regularly sell call or put spreads, but I have a strict stop loss policy. Also, since they're spreads, the worst case loss may be large but it's finite and known ahead of time. I generally do this on indices, not individual stocks. Major stock indices are less likely to have huge one...
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