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I see very little relevance to "coin flipping" theory to trading. Please post some real time trades where "coin flipping" theory was an important consideration. I'm not interested in unproven theory or academic arguments going nowhere. The onus of proof rests with you on this. With respect...

I was looking over some posts from spring/summer 2009 and what I noticed is a group of permabears posting ridiculously pessimistic ideas over and over again no end. I posted a few of them from this S2007S guy last night they are pretty funny. Far too many really to address them scientifically...

Ok this one was funny as well but the joke was on you. You were replying to a guy who basically called the bottom nicely. Hate to see your investment portfolio on that date.

Great call man. Stock continued straight up to more then $190 before settling back this year to $147.

LOL ... Now just how has the market done since May 2009 ??? God, I can just imagine what your trading strategy was at that point, predicting an 11 year bear cycle. Could you have been any more wrong ?

Another funny post. Just exactly what was the start of a new bull market ? Because it happened. How did that short selling work out ?

Good for a laugh seeing what you were posting in the early stages of one of the biggest bull markets any of us will see in our lifetime. And you are still posting calls for the market to drop. Give it up.

I found that usually just out of the money options are more profitable, sometimes the premium doesn't yet reflect the likelihood of a strong move into the money. You can get many more contracts this way, if you are right you rake it in once the options go in the money. You need a high...

From your post it is clear that it is you that doesn't understand random behaviour and the onus of proof on theory. Your claim that you could find a random trend that looks like BVF is total crap. You can't. Period. You are suggesting that a stock could go up 85% in a few months due to...

There is nothing misinformed about my comments; if someone wishes to present a theory on here they better be able to explain it in reference to an example. This is the essence of science versus religon or superstition. BVF is actually quite a normal move for a stock where expected value has...

The problem lies in using a faulty strategy. Averaging down and systematic churning of your account can't be good. The book's in the $1 bin for a reason.

I think the strategy is doomed to failure because you are buying on downtrends and selling on uptrends, probably well before its appropriate. For example, many stocks that set new 52 week highs often do so many times. You'd be constantly selling your position on each daily move, when the best...

Why would I limit myself in that way ? In 2010, the indexes have been flat and hardly worth investing in. Why would you not be more interested in a stock that has made a nice bullish run for three months after reporting decent news.

Well no doubt I understood you weren't a communication major. But seriously now kiddo, calling me an idiot for asking for a clearly defined strategy is backwards, you are the idiot for thinking you can. Please don't post if you can't communicate clearly.

I have a test for you. Please explain the movement of stock BVF on the NYSE over the last three months making careful reference to your coin flipping theory. Then outline for me what trading strategy you have devised as a result for this stock. ps It went from $13 to $24 a share pretty much...

The trends you see with a coin are an illusion strictly due to randomness. Securities have some randomness to their short term movement but the overriding reason they trend is not random at all.

The point is the coin knows nothing of its past; as long as its not an imperfectly designed coin, it is a 50% bet every time. Securities are different. There are literally millions of people reviewing charts etc to predict future direction. The short term money is made understanding people...

Just a hunch, but I wouldn't want to be holdng those Puts early this week. POT is sneaking up on $150 US and if it breaks that level it will run up to close to $160. You can always rebuy them at that point.

Buddy, you are so out of touch with the fundamentals !!! WHAT BEAR MARKET ???? The Bear Market ended March 2009. If you are unclear please note the level of all major markets then and now. You want facts how about the major Canadian banks. They all made a cool BILLION dollars profit this...

But its not clear at all, there are dozens of indexes and literally tens of thousands of securities to trade. Some follow the market, others do not correlate at all to the market. For example, look at the direction of BVF on the NYSE the last couple of months. Its basically just up every day...