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Yeah... that's a good starting point. What you're likely to find is that this approach will be often buying at bid and selling at ask; i.e. you'll "profit" from the spread which is, as we all know, a bit more difficult than simple stats :) No way on elimination of fat tails though... that's...

Lots of good stuff here. Nice post. This has been my process for the last 10 years or so. 1000's of ideas, maybe 10-20 good ones that are working well. I think the best thing to take away from this discussion is two-fold: (1) Generate a lot of ideas. (2) Don't get married to / attached...

Who said this? Some wanna be "famous" author? Its BS. There are no secrets. Seriously. No amount of sophisticated money management will help a negative expectancy trading rule. Money management will not make a losing system into a winning one. Money management is a risk management...

Good find on that article! It does a great job explaining the problem. Math is one of those interesting abstractions that can explain certain things very well and fail miserably at explaining others. The trick is knowing what is useful and when to apply it, and, at the same time being aware of...

LOL... What is wrong with you? Seriously, what's the problem? In any case, next time you have a comment, take a few hours, maybe even a few days, and think about what you're saying. With that last statement you've officially classified yourself as < newb (as in almost 100% ignorant).

To your first point, No - you're not understanding the math... you jumped to an incorrect conclusion... To your second point, you changed the initial variables, hence the probability will change. Attached please find a modified sheet that may be clearer. The link below will shed some...

Yeah, seriously, don't waste your time... the idea isn't worth spending too much time on. Honestly, I just threw out the gambling concept out there because it has a very neat property in terms of the fact that the distribution used in making decisions (R), is *independent* from C. The idea...

Cool - thanks for doing this! However, I think there might be some issues in the way you've chosen to structure the problem. Foremost, SP closing prices are not a random process, there is inherent upward drift, dramatic price altering events, and above all, the distribution is not normal...

The best way to explain this is through an example. Suppose we have price data that is normally distributed between 100 and 200. In excel this function would be RANDBETWEEN(100,200) or something similar. One turn = one change in price. 1st turn we have an R = 123 and C = 155. C is now...

Ok, let's start with a fun probability game. Just one assumption though: - The data has a known normal-like distribution. So, here's the process: 1. Create a random number generator that pulls a "random" number using the distribution we have. Let's call this number "R". 2. If the...

Hi Talon, Glad you're still around! I think we're both on ignore here, so maybe another poster could get Bowo's attention. I'm keenly interested in how Bowo is going to rationalize his system's abysmal performance as of late. My hope is that enough time has passed and that enough money has...

It has been a while since there has been any activity in this thread, and, in an effort to potentially help someone who, quite possibly cannot be helped, I've decided to re-hash some of the bowo dialogues. As many of you are familiar, Bowo is a frequent poster here. He's pitched his "pairs...

Induction is the result of the magnetic field associated with an (EM) electromagnetic wave. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fleming's_right_hand_rule Light is an EM wave. In layman's terms, the magnetic field "pushes" the electric field and the electric field "pushes" the magnetic. These are...

Yes... I had issues with SPY and ES for the first hour or so. Not sure what happened, I assumed it was my internet connection.

It sounds like you haven't done much in the way of technical management. In your post there are some definite misconceptions. 1. Time + effort does not equal more or better results. 2. One 100k engineer whos knows his/her stuff is worth way more in terms of productivity than 10 people...

This is so true... it still amazes me that people believe so strongly that cutting edge research and innovation will come from India and China... Take it from someone who used to work with several Indian and Chinese scientists/engineers... they're not all they're cracked up to be. Sure there...

Fair enough - thanks for not taking my post too strongly, I re-read my post and realized I sound kinda harsh, sorry about that. What you're doing is an idea I'm familiar with, however, I'm form the old school. A good trading idea needs to exploit something fundamental. If one can't explain...

This concept/trading idea is a risk management clusterf**k waiting to happen. 1. You have no idea as to what this strategy's risk truly is, both in terms market dynamic and worst case scenario. 2. The combining of "systems" further obscures your true risk since you do not know the...

Ummm... so you want to place a BUY/SELL right at the open using the opening price? You'll have to do it right after the 1st print. What avenues did you try exactly? Not sure what you've been told through TradeStation/EL or what resources you looked into but its possible because I do...

I just asked you some questions in your "overfitting thread" and you apparently decided to ignore them... were they too hard or did you not know how to respond? From all your posts here, it seems like you want an answer that fits your bias. So which one is it? Do you want more active...