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Notice the Reagan years.

I'm willing to sell one for $50k that can do a double in six weeks.

This is only true for a fully closed, self-contained economy. Unfortunately, there is no such thing. In the case of the US, it is *extremely* "no such thing" due to insane trade and fiscal deficits. Bottom line: the US cannot pay for imported oil with money created by this"infinite capacity"...

It's ALREADY happening.

Sorry it wasn't clearer - need to define the minimum size of move to qualify as "trend". This is completely separate from determining an entry point. In your example, two ticks of movement would potentially be enough to qualify as a "trend", which is obviously non-sensical.

A couple of things that may help you resolve the (non) conflict: - life evolves, species (basically) don't - survival of the individual is not the same as survival of the species (taken to the extreme, surivival of the individual means extinction of the species) Hope that helps.

I can see how this should be good for YHOO stock (provided you bought it way down here) - but for MSFT this acquisition means either flushing their cash pile or taking on big big debt - all at a time when their fundamental business model is being wrecked by cheap PCs (freakin' "netbooks" are...

Sure there is - the lack of a lender with infinite lending capacity. Debt - and therefore inflation, which requires debt growth - cannot extend forever, regardless of monetary policy. Need to stop thinking of the debt as being denominated in USD - visualize it as debt denominated in Yen or...

Conclusion #1: data mining. Conclusion #2: time to rally (first legs match in distance) Conclusion #3: more bear nastiness ahead (final low extensions do not match) Conclusion #4: The first conclusion is correct, nothing can be definitively surmised from the overlay Now if 2000-2002...

If I might make a suggestion on improvement... #1 - Formalize the definition of "trend" for this approach (at a minimum entry signal, exit signal, minimum move) #2 - Figure out what timeframe is currently providing moves consistent with your definition of trend (ok, this is not exactly...

Yes, of course they are. Nobody is objecting to the mechanics of what you're talking about - the objection is to your incorrect characterization that it is "indicator-less".

Your observations are (for practical purposes) collating multiple definitions of "trend". Make your definition more specific, and you'll notice the frequency of observation decline significantly.

Just gonna pull the trailing PE for the some of the Dow components (in alphabetical order)... Alcoa - 5 Amex - 7 Boeing - 8 B of A - 14 C - negative Cat - 6 Chevron - 6 Dupont - 8 Disney - 9 GE - 8 GM - negative infinity Pretty interesting. If the multiples are in roughly the...

I think that can be attributed to face-saving politics. That Paulson talked about the US "humiliation" 24 hours previously is IMO a clear sign the group has a pretty solid idea of what happened and how the imbalances need to be redressed. It's just not something that will ever be said in a...

This is 100% opposite to what has been happening. The debt is being DE-MONETIZED. You don't have to look any further than the recent G20 actions to see this trend is not only real, it is about to become institutionalized and "permanent". The US has lost its ability to fund its own debt in its...

The variance of returns on that "finding" is so huge that unless you have massively wide stops the expectancy for the 17-day trade is actually negative. Surprise, surprise.

If - IF - this is the mother of all recessions it's been bandied to be - it needs to fall to ~350 to match both the earnings decline and the PE multiple of the previous two worst recessions. That happens to be near the '87 high and represents the wiping out of 20+ years of market gains - damn...

Entry #6. http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=gecko

I understood perfectly - no matter what the market does, some part of your "prediction" will prove accurate. That makes it faith-based rather than logic-based, which makes it completely useless for anything but giving you a chance to publicly pat yourself on the back. Which in turn explains...

Gotta get him a Gecko - it's a fashion law that every trader has at least one in the closet.